Leganes
vs
Granada CF
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Leganes 1–0 Granada CF
The model makes it 41% Leganes, 29% draw, 30% Granada CF — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Leganes 1.55, Granada CF 1.16.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Leganes vs Granada CF
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Leganes wins, grey are draws, red are Granada CF wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Leganes at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Leganes vs Granada CF
Leganes
- L0-2away to Tenerife13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Las Palmas4 September 2026
- W1-0Eldense29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Oviedo22 August 2026
- D1-1away to Girona16 August 2026
Granada CF
- D1-1Albacete12 September 2026
- L0-3away to Eibar6 September 2026
- W3-1away to Cordoba30 August 2026
- W2-0Mallorca24 August 2026
- D0-0away to Oviedo15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Leganes | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Granada CF | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Leganes vs Granada CF
- 6 February 2026Leganes 1–0 Granada CFSegunda División
- 14 September 2025Granada CF 0–2 LeganesSegunda División
- 27 May 2023Granada CF 2–0 LeganesSegunda División
- 27 November 2022Leganes 1–0 Granada CFSegunda División
- 22 June 2020Leganes 0–0 Granada CFLa Liga
- 28 September 2019Granada CF 1–0 LeganesLa Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Leganes carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.55 for Granada CF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.55 goals for Leganes and 1.16 for Granada CF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Leganes rate 0.69 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Granada CF rate 0.76 and 1.38.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Granada CF, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Leganes the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Leganes against 1.16 for Granada CF. Leganes's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.38 for Granada CF.