Atalanta
vs
Frosinone
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Atalanta 1–0 Frosinone
The model makes it 46% Atalanta, 28% draw, 26% Frosinone — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Atalanta 1.51, Frosinone 1.01.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Atalanta: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Atalanta are 10th on 9 points from 6 games; Frosinone are 9th on 10 points from 6 games — Serie A.
- Atalanta have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Venezia.
- Frosinone have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Napoli.
- Last 6 meetings: Atalanta 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 15 January 2024, ended Atalanta 5–0 Frosinone.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Atalanta vs Frosinone
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atalanta at 46% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Atalanta vs Frosinone
Atalanta
- W3-1Venezia12 October 2026
- L0-2away to Juventus20 September 2026
- L1-2Cagliari12 September 2026
- L1-2away to AS Roma5 September 2026
- W1-0Bologna31 August 2026
Frosinone
- L0-3away to Napoli10 October 2026
- W2-0Como20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Genoa12 September 2026
- W3-2Venezia6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Fiorentina29 August 2026
What these results say
- Atalanta scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atalanta conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Frosinone scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Atalanta
Chance to finish in the top four · 18% today
Frosinone
Chance to finish in the top four · 5% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Atalanta vs Frosinone
- 15 January 2024Atalanta 5–0 FrosinoneSerie A
- 26 August 2023Frosinone 2–1 AtalantaSerie A
- 20 January 2019Frosinone 0–5 AtalantaSerie A
- 20 August 2018Atalanta 4–0 FrosinoneSerie A
- 23 January 2016Frosinone 0–0 AtalantaSerie A
- 30 August 2015Atalanta 2–0 FrosinoneSerie A
Leading scorers: Atalanta and Frosinone
Atalanta
GoalsAssists
- N. Krstović31
Frosinone
GoalsAssists
- A. Raimondo40
- G. Kvernadze31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Atalanta carry a model rating of 7.05 against 6.9 for Frosinone. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for Atalanta and 1.01 for Frosinone. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atalanta rate 1.17 in attack and 0.78 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Frosinone rate 1.03 and 0.93.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Frosinone, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Atalanta a 1% chance of the title and Frosinone 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atalanta the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Atalanta against 1.01 for Frosinone. Atalanta's attack/defence rating is 1.17/0.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.03/0.93 for Frosinone.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Atalanta at home · Frosinone away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
AtalantaFrosinone
Atalanta are 10th after 6 Serie A matches (between 4th and 11th so far); Frosinone are 9th after 6 (between 4th and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Atalanta 6, Frosinone 6.
Atalanta score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Frosinone have let in 0 there.
Frosinone score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Atalanta have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Atalanta
- at Fiorentina29 Oct · Serie Awin 43%
- vs Parma2 Nov · Serie Awin 54%
Frosinone
- vs Lecce29 Oct · Serie Awin 50%
- vs Torino1 Nov · Serie Awin 44%
- at Cagliari7 Nov · Serie Awin 33%
- at AC Milan22 Nov · Serie Awin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.