Frosinone
vs
Sassuolo
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Frosinone 1–0 Sassuolo
The model makes it 43% Frosinone, 29% draw, 28% Sassuolo — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Frosinone 1.66, Sassuolo 1.10.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Frosinone are 6th on 10 points from 5 games; Sassuolo are 10th on 7 points from 5 games — Serie A.
- Frosinone are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Como.
- Sassuolo have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Monza.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 2 September 2026, ended Sassuolo 1–1 Frosinone.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Frosinone vs Sassuolo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Frosinone at 43% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Frosinone vs Sassuolo
Frosinone
- W2-0Como20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Genoa12 September 2026
- W3-2Venezia6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Fiorentina29 August 2026
- L0-1Juventus23 August 2026
Sassuolo
- L1-2away to Monza18 September 2026
- W3-2Juventus13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Bologna6 September 2026
- W2-1Torino29 August 2026
- L1-2away to Atalanta23 August 2026
What these results say
- Frosinone scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sassuolo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sassuolo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Sassuolo had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 10 |
| 10 | Sassuolo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Frosinone vs Sassuolo
- 2 September 2026Sassuolo 1–1 FrosinoneCoppa Italia
- 13 May 2025Sassuolo 0–1 FrosinoneSerie B
- 14 December 2024Frosinone 1–2 SassuoloSerie B
- 9 March 2024Sassuolo 1–0 FrosinoneSerie A
- 17 September 2023Frosinone 4–2 SassuoloSerie A
- 5 May 2019Sassuolo 2–2 FrosinoneSerie A
Leading scorers: Frosinone and Sassuolo
Frosinone
- A. Raimondo4 goals
- G. Kvernadze3 goals1 assist
Sassuolo
- Vasilije Adžić3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Frosinone carry a model rating of 7.01 against 6.85 for Sassuolo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.66 goals for Frosinone and 1.10 for Sassuolo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Frosinone rate 1.12 in attack and 0.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sassuolo rate 1.07 and 1.07.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Frosinone the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Frosinone against 1.10 for Sassuolo. Frosinone's attack/defence rating is 1.12/0.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.07/1.07 for Sassuolo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Frosinone at home · Sassuolo away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Frosinone 5, Sassuolo 5.
Frosinone score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Sassuolo have let in 1 there.
Sassuolo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Frosinone have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Frosinone
- at Atalanta25 Oct · Serie Awin 32%
- vs Lecce29 Oct · Serie Awin 49%
- vs Torino1 Nov · Serie Awin 46%
- at Cagliari7 Nov · Serie Awin 37%
Sassuolo
- at Como24 Oct · Serie Awin 24%
- vs Lazio27 Oct · Serie Awin 34%
- vs Fiorentina2 Nov · Serie Awin 37%
- at AS Roma7 Nov · Serie Awin 18%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.