Bologna
vs
Inter
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Bologna 0–2 Inter
The model makes it 23% Bologna, 26% draw, 51% Inter — fair odds of 4.35, 3.85 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Bologna 1.00, Inter 2.11.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Bologna are 18th on 2 points from 5 games; Inter are 2nd on 13 points from 5 games — Serie A.
- Bologna have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Torino.
- Inter are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to AS Roma.
- Last 6 meetings: Inter 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 23 May 2026, ended Bologna 3–3 Inter.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Bologna vs Inter
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Inter at 51% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bologna vs Inter
Bologna
- D1-1Torino19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Napoli13 September 2026
- D2-2Sassuolo6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Atalanta31 August 2026
- L0-1Lazio24 August 2026
Inter
- D2-2away to AS Roma19 September 2026
- W5-3Udinese14 September 2026
- W3-2Napoli5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cagliari30 August 2026
- W4-1Monza22 August 2026
What these results say
- Bologna did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Bologna conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Bologna had two goals or fewer.
- Inter went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Inter scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Inter won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 |
| 2 | Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bologna vs Inter
- 23 May 2026Bologna 3–3 InterSerie A
- 4 January 2026Inter 3–1 BolognaSerie A
- 19 December 2025Bologna 1–1 InterSuper Cup
- 20 April 2025Bologna 1–0 InterSerie A
- 15 January 2025Inter 2–2 BolognaSerie A
- 9 March 2024Bologna 0–1 InterSerie A
Leading scorers: Bologna and Inter
Bologna
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Inter
- Lautaro Martínez4 goals
- M. Thuram2 goals2 assists
- F. Esposito2 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Bologna carry a model rating of 6.83 against 7.26 for Inter. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.00 goals for Bologna and 2.11 for Inter. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bologna rate 0.87 in attack and 0.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Inter rate 1.82 and 0.83.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Inter the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Bologna against 2.11 for Inter. Bologna's attack/defence rating is 0.87/0.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.82/0.83 for Inter.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bologna at home · Inter away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Bologna 5, Inter 5.
Inter score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Bologna have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Bologna
- at Cagliari24 Oct · Serie Awin 31%
- at AC Milan28 Oct · Serie Awin 24%
- vs Monza31 Oct · Serie Awin 41%
- at Parma7 Nov · Serie Awin 35%
Inter
- vs Shakhtar Donetsk21 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 63%
- vs Fiorentina25 Oct · Serie Awin 55%
- at Venezia28 Oct · Serie Awin 68%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.