AC Milan
vs
Atalanta
Serie A prediction
Our model says: AC Milan 1–0 Atalanta
The model makes it 39% AC Milan, 30% draw, 31% Atalanta — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: AC Milan 1.35, Atalanta 1.06.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- AC Milan are 5th on 11 points from 5 games; Atalanta are 11th on 6 points from 5 games — Serie A.
- AC Milan are unbeaten in their last 5 (3 won), most recently a 3-0 win at home to Lecce.
- Atalanta are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Juventus.
- Last 6 meetings: Atalanta 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended AC Milan 2–3 Atalanta.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: AC Milan vs Atalanta
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AC Milan at 39% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 2,372 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into AC Milan vs Atalanta
AC Milan
- W3-0Lecce20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Lazio12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Juventus6 September 2026
- W2-0Venezia28 August 2026
- W2-1away to Torino23 August 2026
Atalanta
- L0-2away to Juventus20 September 2026
- L1-2Cagliari12 September 2026
- L1-2away to AS Roma5 September 2026
- W1-0Bologna31 August 2026
- W2-1Sassuolo23 August 2026
What these results say
- AC Milan went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- AC Milan scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atalanta scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atalanta conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | AC Milan | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 11 |
| 11 | Atalanta | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: AC Milan vs Atalanta
- 10 May 2026AC Milan 2–3 AtalantaSerie A
- 28 October 2025Atalanta 1–1 AC MilanSerie A
- 20 April 2025AC Milan 0–1 AtalantaSerie A
- 6 December 2024Atalanta 2–1 AC MilanSerie A
- 25 February 2024AC Milan 1–1 AtalantaSerie A
- 10 January 2024AC Milan 1–2 AtalantaCoppa Italia
Leading scorers: AC Milan and Atalanta
AC Milan
- Diego Moreira3 goals
- A. Rabiot2 goals2 assists
Atalanta
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
AC Milan carry a model rating of 7.11 against 7.04 for Atalanta. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for AC Milan and 1.06 for Atalanta. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AC Milan rate 1.25 in attack and 0.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atalanta rate 1.14 and 0.78.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AC Milan the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for AC Milan against 1.06 for Atalanta. AC Milan's attack/defence rating is 1.25/0.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.14/0.78 for Atalanta.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
AC Milan at home · Atalanta away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: AC Milan 5, Atalanta 5.
AC Milan score most often in the 61–75 minute window (8 goals); Atalanta have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
AC Milan
- at Bournemouth22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 36%
- at Udinese25 Oct · Serie Awin 43%
- vs Bologna28 Oct · Serie Awin 47%
Atalanta
- at Ajax22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 30%
- vs Frosinone25 Oct · Serie Awin 38%
- at Fiorentina29 Oct · Serie Awin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.