AS Roma
vs
Genoa
Serie A prediction
Our model says: AS Roma 2–0 Genoa
The model makes it 62% AS Roma, 23% draw, 15% Genoa — fair odds of 1.61, 4.35 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (14%).
Expected goals: AS Roma 2.40, Genoa 0.62.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- AS Roma are top on 13 points from 5 games; Genoa are 19th on 1 point from 5 games — Serie A.
- AS Roma are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Inter.
- Genoa have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Parma.
- Last 6 meetings: AS Roma 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 8 March 2026, ended Genoa 2–1 AS Roma.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: AS Roma vs Genoa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AS Roma at 62% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into AS Roma vs Genoa
AS Roma
- D2-2Inter19 September 2026
- W2-0away to Torino14 September 2026
- W2-1Atalanta5 September 2026
- W4-0away to Lecce31 August 2026
- W4-0Fiorentina24 August 2026
Genoa
- L1-2away to Parma20 September 2026
- D1-1Frosinone12 September 2026
- L1-4Como4 September 2026
- L0-1away to Lazio30 August 2026
- L0-2Napoli22 August 2026
What these results say
- AS Roma went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- AS Roma scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- AS Roma won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Genoa did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Genoa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AS Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 13 |
| 19 | Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: AS Roma vs Genoa
- 8 March 2026Genoa 2–1 AS RomaSerie A
- 29 December 2025AS Roma 3–1 GenoaSerie A
- 17 January 2025AS Roma 3–1 GenoaSerie A
- 15 September 2024Genoa 1–1 AS RomaSerie A
- 19 May 2024AS Roma 1–0 GenoaSerie A
- 28 September 2023Genoa 4–1 AS RomaSerie A
Leading scorers: AS Roma and Genoa
AS Roma
- D. Malen6 goals
- M. Soulé2 goals1 assist
Genoa
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
AS Roma carry a model rating of 7.33 against 6.71 for Genoa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.40 goals for AS Roma and 0.62 for Genoa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AS Roma rate 1.62 in attack and 0.62 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Genoa rate 0.80 and 1.07.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AS Roma the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.40 expected goals for AS Roma against 0.62 for Genoa. AS Roma's attack/defence rating is 1.62/0.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.07 for Genoa.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
AS Roma at home · Genoa away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: AS Roma 5, Genoa 5.
AS Roma score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Genoa have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
AS Roma
- vs Slovan Bratislava20 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 75%
- at Napoli24 Oct · Serie Awin 42%
- vs Cagliari27 Oct · Serie Awin 54%
Genoa
- vs Venezia25 Oct · Serie Awin 43%
- vs Juventus28 Oct · Serie Awin 21%
- at Lecce1 Nov · Serie Awin 34%
- vs AC Milan8 Nov · Serie Awin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.