Karmiotissa
vs
Olympiakos
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Karmiotissa 0–1 Olympiakos
The model makes it 32% Karmiotissa, 29% draw, 39% Olympiakos — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Karmiotissa 1.17, Olympiakos 1.34.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to Olympiakos: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Karmiotissa are 12th on 3 points from 5 games; Olympiakos are 10th on 4 points from 5 games — 1. Division.
- Karmiotissa have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Omonia Nicosia.
- Olympiakos have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Aris.
- Last 6 meetings: Olympiakos 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 October 2023, ended Olympiakos 4–1 Karmiotissa.
More Cypriot First Division predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Karmiotissa vs Olympiakos
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Olympiakos at 39% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Karmiotissa vs Olympiakos
Karmiotissa
- L0-3Omonia Nicosia9 October 2026
- D0-0away to Aris20 September 2026
- D1-1Omonia Aradippou12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Omonia 29is Maiou4 September 2026
- L0-3Pafos30 August 2026
Olympiakos
- L1-2Aris11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Omonia Aradippou20 September 2026
- D3-3Omonia 29is Maiou13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Pafos7 September 2026
- D3-3Nea Salamis28 August 2026
What these results say
- Karmiotissa did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Karmiotissa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Olympiakos did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Olympiakos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Olympiakos conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Karmiotissa | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 3 |
| 10 | Olympiakos | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Karmiotissa vs Olympiakos
- 25 October 2023Olympiakos 4–1 KarmiotissaCup
- 8 May 2023Olympiakos 1–2 Karmiotissa1. Division
- 1 April 2023Karmiotissa 0–2 Olympiakos1. Division
- 9 January 2023Olympiakos 0–0 Karmiotissa1. Division
- 3 October 2022Karmiotissa 1–0 Olympiakos1. Division
- 31 July 2021Karmiotissa 1–4 OlympiakosFriendlies Clubs
The two sides
Karmiotissa carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.55 for Olympiakos. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.17 goals for Karmiotissa and 1.34 for Olympiakos. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Karmiotissa rate 0.52 in attack and 1.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Olympiakos rate 0.75 and 1.38.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Olympiakos the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Karmiotissa against 1.34 for Olympiakos. Karmiotissa's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.38 for Olympiakos.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Karmiotissa at home · Olympiakos away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Karmiotissa 5, Olympiakos 5.
Karmiotissa score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); Olympiakos have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Karmiotissa
- at AEK Larnaca7 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 10%
- vs AEL22 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 36%
- at Anorthosis28 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 26%
Olympiakos
- vs Apollon Limassol7 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 36%
- vs AEK Larnaca22 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 27%
- at AEL27 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.