Neftchi Baku
vs
Kapaz
Premyer Liqa prediction
Our model says: Neftchi Baku 2–0 Kapaz
The model makes it 70% Neftchi Baku, 19% draw, 11% Kapaz — fair odds of 1.43, 5.26 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Neftchi Baku 2.57, Kapaz 0.75.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,455 settled matches.
One-sided: Neftchi Baku are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Neftchi Baku's rating is built from 41 Azerbaijan Premier League matches and Kapaz's from 40, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Neftchi Baku are 2nd on 17 points from 8 games; Kapaz are 7th on 11 points from 7 games — Premyer Liqa.
- Neftchi Baku are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-3 draw away to Qarabag.
- Kapaz are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Zira.
- Last 6 meetings: Neftchi Baku 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 23 May 2026, ended Kapaz 0–1 Neftchi Baku.
More Azerbaijan Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Neftchi Baku vs Kapaz
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Neftchi Baku at 70% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 358 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 64.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.6%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Neftchi Baku vs Kapaz
Neftchi Baku
Premyer Liqa
- D3-3away to Qarabag17 October 2026
- D0-0Sabah FA9 October 2026
- W3-0away to Qabala18 September 2026
- W3-2away to Imisli FK11 September 2026
- W4-1Safa Baku5 September 2026
Kapaz
Premyer Liqa
- D1-1Zira18 October 2026
- W2-0away to Araz9 October 2026
- D1-1Sumqayıt20 September 2026
- W1-0Qabala12 September 2026
- L1-4Şamaxı FK4 September 2026
What these results say
- Neftchi Baku went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Neftchi Baku scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Neftchi Baku had three goals or more.
- Kapaz scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Kapaz had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Neftchi Baku | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 8 | +13 | 17 |
| 7 | Kapaz | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Neftchi Baku vs Kapaz
- 23 May 2026Kapaz 0–1 Neftchi BakuPremyer Liqa
- 15 February 2026Kapaz 1–3 Neftchi BakuPremyer Liqa
- 1 November 2025Neftchi Baku 5–1 KapazPremyer Liqa
- 4 May 2025Neftchi Baku 2–2 KapazPremyer Liqa
- 5 March 2025Kapaz 1–0 Neftchi BakuPremyer Liqa
- 28 February 2025Neftchi Baku 1–0 KapazCup
The two sides
Neftchi Baku carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.23 for Kapaz. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.57 goals for Neftchi Baku and 0.75 for Kapaz. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Neftchi Baku rate 0.95 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kapaz rate 0.47 and 1.66.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Neftchi Baku a 13.2% chance of the title and Kapaz 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,148 correct results out of 4,449 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Neftchi Baku the highest probability at 70%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.57 expected goals for Neftchi Baku against 0.75 for Kapaz. Neftchi Baku's attack/defence rating is 0.95/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.66 for Kapaz.
How the model reaches 70% for Neftchi Baku to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Neftchi Baku to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Neftchi Baku's ratings take away 8 points and Kapaz's ratings add 34 points, which lands on the published 70%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Neftchi Baku's ratings36%−8
- Kapaz's ratings70%+34
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Neftchi Baku at home · Kapaz away
League matches only, Premyer Liqa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premyer Liqa matches this season: Neftchi Baku 8, Kapaz 7.
Kapaz score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Neftchi Baku have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Neftchi Baku
- at Araz22 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 59%
- vs Zira28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 60%
- at Safa Baku5 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 61%
Kapaz
- vs Qarabag22 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 20%
- at Turan28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 20%
- at Şamaxı FK5 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.