Qatar SC
vs
Al-Gharafa
Stars League prediction
Our model says: Qatar SC 1–2 Al-Gharafa
The model makes it 35% Qatar SC, 26% draw, 39% Al-Gharafa — fair odds of 2.86, 3.85 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Qatar SC 1.47, Al-Gharafa 1.61.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 939 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Qatar SC's rating is built from 28 Qatar Stars League matches and Al-Gharafa's from 29, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 303 matches.
Key facts
- Qatar SC are 11th on 3 points from 6 games; Al-Gharafa are 10th on 6 points from 7 games — Stars League.
- Qatar SC have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Al-Sailiya.
- Al-Gharafa have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Al Ahli Doha.
- Last 6 meetings: Al-Gharafa 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 12 March 2026, ended Qatar SC 2–0 Al-Gharafa.
More Qatar Stars League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Qatar SC vs Al-Gharafa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Gharafa at 39% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 3,435 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Qatar SC vs Al-Gharafa
Qatar SC
Stars League
- D2-2away to Al-Sailiya17 October 2026
- L0-3Al-Rayyan SC9 October 2026
- D0-0away to Al-Arabi SC12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Al Ahli Doha3 September 2026
- L2-6Al Sadd28 August 2026
Al-Gharafa
Stars League
- D2-2Al Ahli Doha22 October 2026
- D0-0Al-Rayyan SC18 October 2026
- L2-3away to Al Wakrah8 October 2026
- D0-0Lusail City11 September 2026
- L1-4away to Al Sadd5 September 2026
What these results say
- Qatar SC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Qatar SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Gharafa did not win any of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Qatar SC | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 3 |
| 10 | Al-Gharafa | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Qatar SC vs Al-Gharafa
- 12 March 2026Qatar SC 2–0 Al-GharafaStars League
- 19 January 2026Qatar SC 3–2 Al-GharafaQSL Cup
- 7 November 2025Al-Gharafa 2–1 Qatar SCStars League
- 22 February 2025Al-Gharafa 4–2 Qatar SCStars League
- 22 September 2024Qatar SC 1–3 Al-GharafaStars League
- 19 May 2024Qatar SC 2–2 Al-GharafaEmir Cup
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Qatar SC carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.28 for Al-Gharafa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for Qatar SC and 1.61 for Al-Gharafa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Qatar SC rate 0.50 in attack and 1.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Gharafa rate 0.53 and 1.67.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,146 correct results out of 4,446 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Gharafa the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Qatar SC against 1.61 for Al-Gharafa. Qatar SC's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.67 for Al-Gharafa.
How the model reaches 39% for Al-Gharafa to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Al-Gharafa to win. Then home advantage changes nothing, Qatar SC's ratings add 37 points and Al-Gharafa's ratings take away 35 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage37%±0
- Qatar SC's ratings74%+37
- Al-Gharafa's ratings39%−35
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Qatar SC at home · Al-Gharafa away
League matches only, Stars League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Stars League matches this season: Qatar SC 6, Al-Gharafa 7.
Qatar SC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Al-Gharafa have let in 3 there.
Al-Gharafa score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Qatar SC have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Qatar SC
- at Lusail City20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 27%
- at Al-Duhail SC27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 19%
- vs Al Shahaniya3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 41%
Al-Gharafa
- vs Al-Duhail SC20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 22%
- at Al Quwa Al Jawiya23 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 38%
- vs Al-Arabi SC27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.