11 October 2026, 19:30 UTC

Arouca vs Estrela Primeira Liga prediction & result

Arouca
Referee: Luis Carlos Mateus Filipe
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Arouca 1-0 Estrela.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Arouca, 24% draw, 27% Estrela — fair odds of 2.04, 4.17 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Arouca at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Arouca96%Draw4%Estrela0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Iván Barberoassist: Näis Djouahra
5'
45+4'
⚽Ianis Stoica (pen)
Pablo Gozálbez
45+6'
Iván Barbero
45+8'
45+8'
Abraham Marcus
50'
Max Scholze
🔁Pablo Gozálbezout: Pedro Santos
57'
61'
🔁Ianis Stoicaout: Beni Souza
62'
🔁Max Scholzeout: Jefferson Encada
Pedro Santos
62'
🔁Iván Barberoout: Dylan Nandín
65'
🔁Näis Djouahraout: Gabrijel Rukavina
65'
🔁Taichi Fukuiout: Lee Hyun-ju
79'
🔁Alfonso Trezzaout: Brian Mansilla
80'
Taichi Fukui
81'
82'
🔁Eddy Douéout: Emerson Vanga
Jose Fontán
88'
90+1'
🔁Lovro Zvonarekout: Alisson Souza
90+1'
🔁Santiago Serraout: Kevin Hoog Jansson

Match stats — Arouca vs Estrela

37%Possession63%
7Shots11
3On target2
5Corners6
0.78xG1.48

Goals against chances

Arouca1 from 0.78 xGabout what the chances were worth
Estrela0 from 1.48 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Arouca 4-2-3-1
  • 12I. de ArruabarrenaG
  • 28Tiago EsgaioD
  • 15Javi SánchezD
  • 3José FontánD
  • 18O. LebedenkoD
  • 6E. van EeM
  • 8T. FukuiM
  • 19A. TrezzaM
  • 10Pablo GozálbezM
  • 7N. DjouahraM
  • 17BarberoF
Substitutes
  • 21Mateo FloresM
  • 37Mario ClimentD
  • 14Lee Hyun-JuM
  • 24B. MansillaF
  • 9F. MayuluF
  • 4Diogo MonteiroD
  • 23D. NandínF
  • 89Pedro SantosM
  • 5B. PopovićD
Coach: Vítor Severino
Estrela 4-2-3-1
  • 24Léo LinckG
  • 21M. ScholzeD
  • 30Patrick LuanD
  • 5S. LekovićD
  • 55Rafa SoaresD
  • 78Santiago SerraM
  • 39Eddy DoueM
  • 99A. MarcusM
  • 14L. ZvonarekM
  • 10I. StoicaM
  • 37L. AntonettiF
Substitutes
  • 4Bernardo SchappoD
  • 79A. ChernevD
  • 17Jefferson EncadaD
  • 6K. Höög JanssonM
  • 3L. Mincarelli DavinD
  • 49R. MutebaF
  • 28T. MoustierM
  • 71E. Pedro VangaM
  • 51Diogo PintoG
Coach: Pepa

Form going into Arouca vs Estrela

Arouca

Primeira Liga

  • D2-2away to Sporting CP19 September 2026

Estrela

Primeira Liga

  • L0-2Academico Viseu20 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Arouca11623138+520
12Estrela112451722-510

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Arouca vs Estrela

  • 19 April 2026Arouca 1–0 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
  • 7 December 2025Estrela 3–1 AroucaPrimeira Liga
  • 19 April 2025Arouca 1–0 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
  • 9 December 2024Estrela 2–1 AroucaPrimeira Liga
  • 5 May 2024Arouca 0–0 EstrelaPrimeira Liga

The full Arouca vs Estrela record →

Leading scorers: Arouca and Estrela

Arouca

GoalsAssists

  • Barbero50

Estrela

GoalsAssists

  • L. Antonetti51
  • I. Stoica42
  • A. Marcus41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Arouca beat Estrela 1–0. The model had made a win for Arouca its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Iván Barbero 5' for Arouca. On expected goals it finished 0.78–1.48.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Arouca a 11.3% chance to finish in the top four: 13.4% after a win, 9.3% after a draw, 6.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.4%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.

For Estrela the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 5.4% going in: 2.4% after a win, 4.7% after a draw, 6.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.3%, 0.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primeira Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Arouca v Estrela has moved

First published on 27 Sep at 46% / 26% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 49% / 24% / 27%: the biggest move is Arouca's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Arouca win49%▲ +3
  2. Draw24%▼ −2
  3. Estrela win27%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.