Arouca
vs
Estrela
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: Arouca 2–1 Estrela
The model makes it 46% Arouca, 26% draw, 28% Estrela — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Arouca 2.10, Estrela 1.38.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Arouca vs Estrela
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arouca at 46% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Arouca vs Estrela
Arouca
- D2-2away to Sporting CP19 September 2026
- L1-2Santa Clara13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Estoril7 September 2026
- W2-1Maritimo29 August 2026
- L0-2away to FC Porto23 August 2026
Estrela
- L0-2Academico Viseu20 September 2026
- D3-3away to Rio Ave14 September 2026
- W2-1SC Braga10 September 2026
- D2-2Famalicao5 September 2026
- W3-2away to Nacional30 August 2026
What these results say
- Arouca failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arouca conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Estrela conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Estrela scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Estrela had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arouca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 11 |
| 8 | Estrela | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Arouca vs Estrela
- 19 April 2026Arouca 1–0 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 7 December 2025Estrela 3–1 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 19 April 2025Arouca 1–0 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 9 December 2024Estrela 2–1 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 5 May 2024Arouca 0–0 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 28 December 2023Estrela 1–4 AroucaPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Arouca and Estrela
Arouca
- Barbero4 goals
Estrela
- I. Stoica4 goals2 assists
- A. Marcus4 goals1 assists
- L. Antonetti4 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Arouca carry a model rating of 6.79 against 6.69 for Estrela. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.10 goals for Arouca and 1.38 for Estrela. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Arouca rate 0.99 in attack and 1.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Estrela rate 0.99 and 1.40.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Arouca a 0.4% chance of the title and Estrela 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arouca the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.1 expected goals for Arouca against 1.38 for Estrela. Arouca's attack/defence rating is 0.99/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.99/1.4 for Estrela.