SC Freiburg
vs
FC Schalke 04
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: SC Freiburg 1–0 FC Schalke 04
The model makes it 47% SC Freiburg, 29% draw, 24% FC Schalke 04 — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: SC Freiburg 1.73, FC Schalke 04 0.91.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SC Freiburg at 47% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04
SC Freiburg
- D2-2away to Eintracht Frankfurt19 September 2026
- W5-0Borussia Mönchengladbach12 September 2026
- W1-0away to SC Paderborn 075 September 2026
- W4-1Werder Bremen30 August 2026
FC Schalke 04
- D0-0SV Elversberg20 September 2026
- W3-1away to Union Berlin11 September 2026
- D0-0Bayern München5 September 2026
- L0-3away to FC Augsburg30 August 2026
What these results say
- SC Freiburg went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- SC Freiburg scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- SC Freiburg won 3 of these 4 matches.
- FC Schalke 04 failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- FC Schalke 04 failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 10 |
| 11 | FC Schalke 04 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04
- 23 April 2023SC Freiburg 4–0 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
- 30 October 2022FC Schalke 04 0–2 SC FreiburgBundesliga
- 17 April 2021SC Freiburg 4–0 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
- 16 December 2020FC Schalke 04 0–2 SC FreiburgBundesliga
- 27 June 2020SC Freiburg 4–0 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
- 21 December 2019FC Schalke 04 2–2 SC FreiburgBundesliga
Leading scorers: SC Freiburg and FC Schalke 04
SC Freiburg
- Y. Suzuki4 goals
- I. Matanović3 goals1 assists
FC Schalke 04
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
SC Freiburg carry a model rating of 7.02 against 6.83 for FC Schalke 04. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.73 goals for SC Freiburg and 0.91 for FC Schalke 04. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SC Freiburg rate 1.21 in attack and 0.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Schalke 04 rate 0.68 and 0.78.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SC Freiburg the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.73 expected goals for SC Freiburg against 0.91 for FC Schalke 04. SC Freiburg's attack/defence rating is 1.21/0.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/0.78 for FC Schalke 04.