Famalicao
vs
Alverca
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: Famalicao 1–0 Alverca
The model makes it 45% Famalicao, 30% draw, 25% Alverca — fair odds of 2.22, 3.33 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Famalicao 1.51, Alverca 0.86.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Famalicao are 13th on 7 points from 7 games; Alverca are 10th on 8 points from 7 games — Primeira Liga.
- Famalicao are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 4-0 win away to Nacional.
- Alverca have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Rio Ave.
- Last 3 meetings: Famalicao 2 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended Famalicao 1–0 Alverca.
All Primeira Liga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Famalicao vs Alverca
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Famalicao at 45% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Famalicao vs Alverca
Famalicao
- W4-0away to Nacional19 September 2026
- D1-1Sporting CP13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Estrela5 September 2026
- D0-0GIL Vicente30 August 2026
- L0-1away to Santa Clara23 August 2026
Alverca
- W1-0Rio Ave19 September 2026
- W3-1away to Nacional12 September 2026
- L1-2SC Braga5 September 2026
- D1-1Santa Clara29 August 2026
- L1-3away to Sporting CP22 August 2026
What these results say
- Famalicao failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Alverca scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Alverca conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Alverca.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Famalicao | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 7 |
| 10 | Alverca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Famalicao vs Alverca
- 16 May 2026Famalicao 1–0 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
- 4 January 2026Alverca 1–0 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
- 20 November 2021Alverca 1–2 FamalicaoTaça de Portugal
Leading scorers: Famalicao and Alverca
Famalicao
- G. Koutsias5 goals
Alverca
- D. Camara3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Famalicao carry a model rating of 6.89 against 6.69 for Alverca. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for Famalicao and 0.86 for Alverca. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Famalicao rate 0.88 in attack and 0.83 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Alverca rate 0.82 and 1.13.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Alverca, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Famalicao the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Famalicao against 0.86 for Alverca. Famalicao's attack/defence rating is 0.88/0.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.13 for Alverca.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Famalicao at home · Alverca away
League matches only, Primeira Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primeira Liga matches this season: Famalicao 7, Alverca 7.
Famalicao score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Alverca have let in 2 there.
Alverca score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Famalicao have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Famalicao
- at Rio Ave25 Oct · Primeira Ligawin 45%
- at SC Braga1 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 27%
- vs Arouca6 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 41%
- at Benfica30 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 21%
- vs Academico Viseu6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 40%
Alverca
- vs Arouca24 Oct · Primeira Ligawin 34%
- at Benfica2 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 15%
- vs Casa Pia7 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 47%
- at Academico Viseu28 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 28%
- vs Moreirense6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.