Maritimo
vs
FC Porto
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: Maritimo 0–2 FC Porto
The model makes it 17% Maritimo, 24% draw, 59% FC Porto — fair odds of 5.88, 4.17 and 1.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (12%).
Expected goals: Maritimo 0.76, FC Porto 2.34.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Maritimo vs FC Porto
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Porto at 59% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 675 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Maritimo vs FC Porto
Maritimo
- D1-1away to GIL Vicente19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Moreirense14 September 2026
- L0-3Benfica5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Arouca29 August 2026
- D2-2Academico Viseu22 August 2026
FC Porto
- W3-1Benfica20 September 2026
- W4-1away to Casa Pia12 September 2026
- W2-1Moreirense4 September 2026
- W3-0away to Academico Viseu29 August 2026
- W2-0Arouca23 August 2026
What these results say
- Maritimo did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Maritimo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Maritimo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Porto won every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Porto scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Porto had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Maritimo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 1 | FC Porto | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 3 | +15 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Maritimo vs FC Porto
- 1 February 2023Maritimo 0–2 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
- 6 August 2022FC Porto 5–1 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
- 30 January 2022FC Porto 2–1 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
- 22 August 2021Maritimo 1–1 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
- 22 February 2021Maritimo 1–2 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
- 3 October 2020FC Porto 2–3 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Maritimo and FC Porto
Maritimo
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
FC Porto
- Gabri Veiga4 goals3 assists
- André Silva3 goals2 assists
- Borja Sainz3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Maritimo carry a model rating of 6.62 against 7.28 for FC Porto. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.76 goals for Maritimo and 2.34 for FC Porto. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Maritimo rate 0.82 in attack and 1.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Porto rate 1.42 and 0.61.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Maritimo a 0.1% chance of the title and FC Porto 61.7%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Porto the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Maritimo against 2.34 for FC Porto. Maritimo's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.42/0.61 for FC Porto.