10 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Maritimo vs FC Porto Primeira Liga prediction & result

Funchal
Referee: Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves, Portugal
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Maritimo 1-2 FC Porto.

Before kick-off the model made it 13% Maritimo, 20% draw, 67% FC Porto — fair odds of 7.69, 5.00 and 1.49.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Porto at 67%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Maritimo0%Draw2%FC Porto98%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Gábor Szalaiassist: Maxime Dominguez
16'
36'
Alan Gonzalo Varela
42'
⚽Victor Froholdt
45'
🔁Alan Gonzalo Varelaout: Pablo Rosario
54'
🔁Hwang In-Beomout: Gabri Veiga
55'
🔁William Gomesout: Borja Sainz
57'
Eduardo Gabriel Aquino Cossa
🔁Tomas Tavaresout: Simo Bouzaidi
66'
🔁Maxime Dominguezout: Rodri Andrade
66'
66'
🔁André Silvaout: Samuel Aghehowa
🔁Adrián Butzkeout: Mons Rogeani Bassouamina
78'
🔁Martín Tejónout: Maurice Boakye
79'
79'
🔁Eduardo Gabriel Aquino Cossaout: Oskar Pietuszewski
84'
⚽Oskar Pietuszewskiassist: Jakub Kiwior
84'
•Oskar Pietuszewski
Igor Julião
87'
🔁Ibrahim Akitunde Alaniout: Samuel Bamba
89'

Match stats — Maritimo vs FC Porto

42%Possession58%
7Shots19
4On target9
2Corners6
0.27xG2.19

Goals against chances

Maritimo1 from 0.27 xGmore than the chances were worth
FC Porto2 from 2.19 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Maritimo 4-2-3-1
  • 30Fran VieitesG
  • 2Igor JuliãoD
  • 44Romain CorreiaD
  • 22G. SzalaiD
  • 23Paulo HenriqueD
  • 21I. AlaniM
  • 14Raphael GuzzoM
  • 15Tomás TavaresM
  • 8M. DominguezM
  • 10Martín TejónM
  • 17Adrián ButzkeF
Substitutes
  • 1Gonçalo TabuaçoG
  • 13Alfonso PastorG
  • 3N. OgbetaD
  • 4Rafael FernandesD
  • 35B. LimbombeF
  • 66I. AyumaM
  • 18V. DanilovićM
  • 12M. BassouaminaF
  • 27S. BambaF
Coach: M. van der Gaag
FC Porto 4-3-3
  • 99Diogo CostaG
  • 20Alberto BaioD
  • 5J. BednarekD
  • 4J. KiwiorD
  • 74Francisco MouraD
  • 8Victor Mow FroholdtM
  • 22A. VarelaM
  • 16Hwang In-BeomM
  • 7WilliamF
  • 19André SilvaF
  • 11Pepê AquinoF
Substitutes
  • 29S. GiménezF
  • 17Borja SainzF
  • 9SamuF
  • 77O. PietuszewskiF
  • 10Gabri VeigaM
  • 13P. RosarioM
  • 42S. FofanaM
  • 37Gabriel MecF
  • 52Martim FernandesD
Coach: F. Farioli

Form going into Maritimo vs FC Porto

Maritimo

Primeira Liga

  • D1-1away to GIL Vicente19 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Moreirense14 September 2026

FC Porto

Primeira Liga

  • W3-1Benfica20 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Maritimo10226921-128
1FC Porto111100275+2233

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Maritimo vs FC Porto

  • 1 February 2023Maritimo 0–2 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
  • 6 August 2022FC Porto 5–1 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
  • 30 January 2022FC Porto 2–1 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
  • 22 August 2021Maritimo 1–1 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
  • 22 February 2021Maritimo 1–2 FC PortoPrimeira Liga

The full Maritimo vs FC Porto record →

Leading scorers: Maritimo and FC Porto

Maritimo

No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

FC Porto

GoalsAssists

  • Borja Sainz61
  • Gabri Veiga54
  • André Silva42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Porto won 2–1 at Maritimo. The model had made a win for FC Porto its most likely outcome, at 67%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Gábor Szalai 16' for Maritimo, Victor Froholdt 42' for FC Porto, Oskar Pietuszewski 84' for FC Porto. On expected goals it finished 0.27–2.19.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Maritimo a 15.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 9.2% after a win, 12.9% after a draw, 16.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.1%, 0.9 points higher than before the match.

For FC Porto the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 60.1% going in: 62.4% after a win, 54.7% after a draw, 49.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 62.4%, 2.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primeira Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Maritimo v FC Porto has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 17% / 24% / 59% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 13% / 20% / 67%: the biggest move is FC Porto's chance of winning, up 8 points.

  1. Maritimo win13%▼ −4
  2. Draw20%▼ −4
  3. FC Porto win67%▲ +8

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.