Regular Season - 5 · 11 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Bundesliga prediction

RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne

Our model says: 1. FC Köln 2–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach

The model makes it 40% 1. FC Köln, 27% draw, 33% Borussia Mönchengladbach — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: 1. FC Köln 1.91, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.59.

Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published

Live win probability

From kick-off
1. FC Köln40%2.50
Draw27%3.70
Borussia Mönchengladbach33%3.03

These update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.

Model insights: 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach

68%
Both teams to score
68%
Over 2.5 goals
32%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

1. FC Köln win Draw Borussia Mönchengladbach win
  1. 1–110%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–27%
  4. 2–27%
  5. 3–16%
  6. 2–06%
  7. 1–05%

Scores read 1. FC Köln first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 51%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts 1. FC Köln at 40% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach

1. FC Köln

  • L1-2away to Hamburger SV19 September 2026
  • D1-1Werder Bremen12 September 2026
  • L1-4away to VfB Stuttgart4 September 2026
  • W3-21899 Hoffenheim29 August 2026

Borussia Mönchengladbach

  • L3-4FSV Mainz 0519 September 2026
  • L0-5away to SC Freiburg12 September 2026
  • L3-4SV Elversberg5 September 2026
  • L0-3away to RB Leipzig29 August 2026

What these results say

  • 1. FC Köln scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 1. FC Köln conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for 1. FC Köln.
  • Borussia Mönchengladbach did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Borussia Mönchengladbach conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Borussia Mönchengladbach had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
131. FC Köln411269-34
18Borussia Mönchengladbach4004616-100

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach

  • 21 March 20261. FC Köln 3–3 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
  • 8 November 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
  • 9 March 2024Borussia Monchengladbach 3–3 1. FC KölnBundesliga
  • 22 October 20231. FC Köln 3–1 Borussia MonchengladbachBundesliga
  • 2 April 20231. FC Köln 0–0 Borussia MonchengladbachBundesliga
  • 9 October 2022Borussia Monchengladbach 5–2 1. FC KölnBundesliga

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

1. FC Köln carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.67 for Borussia Mönchengladbach. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

The model expects goals

Under the hood the model expects 1.91 goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.59 for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

1. FC Köln rate 0.85 in attack and 1.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Borussia Mönchengladbach rate 0.85 and 1.23.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives 1. FC Köln the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.91 expected goals for 1. FC Köln against 1.59 for Borussia Mönchengladbach. 1. FC Köln's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.23 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.