Wellington Phoenix
vs
Macarthur FC
A-League prediction
Our model says: Wellington Phoenix 2–1 Macarthur FC
The model makes it 46% Wellington Phoenix, 26% draw, 28% Macarthur FC — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Wellington Phoenix 1.72, Macarthur FC 1.22.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Edge to Wellington Phoenix: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Wellington Phoenix are top on 10 points from 4 games; Macarthur FC are 7th on 5 points from 4 games — A-League.
- Wellington Phoenix are unbeaten in their last 4 games (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Auckland FC.
- Macarthur FC are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Brisbane Roar.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 24 April 2026, ended Macarthur FC 4–0 Wellington Phoenix.
More A-League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur FC
Has the model earned this number?
Wellington Phoenix at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur FC
Wellington Phoenix
A-League
- D0-0away to Auckland FC7 November 2026
- W3-0away to Newcastle Jets31 October 2026
- W2-0Central Coast Mariners25 October 2026
- W2-1Melbourne Victory18 October 2026
Macarthur FC
A-League
- L1-2Brisbane Roar8 November 2026
- D0-0Western Sydney Wanderers31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Newcastle Jets24 October 2026
- W2-1Perth Glory17 October 2026
What these results say
- Wellington Phoenix went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Wellington Phoenix won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Wellington Phoenix scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Macarthur FC failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Macarthur FC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Macarthur FC conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Phoenix | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 10 |
| 7 | Macarthur FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur FC
- 24 April 2026Macarthur FC 4–0 Wellington PhoenixA-League
- 22 November 2025Wellington Phoenix 0–1 Macarthur FCA-League
- 20 January 2025Macarthur FC 1–2 Wellington PhoenixA-League
- 14 December 2024Wellington Phoenix 1–2 Macarthur FCA-League
- 27 April 2024Wellington Phoenix 3–0 Macarthur FCA-League
- 18 February 2024Macarthur FC 1–2 Wellington PhoenixA-League
Leading scorers: Wellington Phoenix and Macarthur FC
Wellington Phoenix
GoalsAssists
- C. Piper30
- R. Bidois20
- N. Walker11
Macarthur FC
GoalsAssists
- M. Toure11
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wellington Phoenix the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Wellington Phoenix against 1.22 for Macarthur FC. Wellington Phoenix's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.8 for Macarthur FC.
How the model reaches 46% for Wellington Phoenix to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Wellington Phoenix to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, Wellington Phoenix's ratings add 3 points and Macarthur FC's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage39%+2
- Wellington Phoenix's ratings42%+3
- Macarthur FC's ratings46%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Season stats
Wellington Phoenix at home · Macarthur FC away
League matches only, A-League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All A-League matches this season: Wellington Phoenix 4, Macarthur FC 4.
Wellington Phoenix score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Macarthur FC have let in 0 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Wellington Phoenix
- vs Adelaide United6 Dec · A-Leaguewin 48%
- at Western Sydney Wanderers13 Dec · A-Leaguewin 40%
- vs Auckland FC19 Dec · A-Leaguewin 40%
- at Melbourne Victory29 Dec · A-Leaguewin 37%
- vs Newcastle Jets2 Jan · A-Leaguewin 44%
Macarthur FC
- vs Melbourne City27 Nov · A-Leaguewin 35%
- at Adelaide United11 Dec · A-Leaguewin 35%
- vs Central Coast Mariners21 Dec · A-Leaguewin 44%
- at Sydney FC28 Dec · A-Leaguewin 27%
- at Western Sydney Wanderers1 Jan · A-Leaguewin 33%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.