Alverca vs Estrela Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Alverca 2-2 Estrela.
Before kick-off the model made it 68% Alverca, 16% draw, 16% Estrela — fair odds of 1.47, 6.25 and 6.25.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Alverca at 68%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Alverca vs Estrela
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31Matheus MendesG
- 14Steven BaseyaD
- 4Yaya BojangD
- 33Bastien MeupiyouD
- 2Nabil TouaiziM
- 6Davy GuiM
- 25Ian LuccasM
- 12Isaac JamesM
- 10ChiquinhoF
- 22FigueiredoF
- 9VivaldoF
- 35Rayan LucasM
- 55Francisco ChissumbaD
- 8Vasco MoreiraM
- 19Marco EssimiF
- 17Samy Jr MerhegF
- 91JhonatanG
- 20Diogo SpencerD
- 15Ikker dos SantosD
- 18Zakaria KassaryM
- 24Léo LinckG
- 17Jefferson EncadaD
- 30Luan PatrickD
- 5Stefan LekovićD
- 55Rafa SoaresD
- 14Lovro ZvonarekM
- 39Eddy DouéM
- 8RobinhoM
- 99Abraham MarcusF
- 37Leandro AntonettiF
- 10Ianis StoicaF
- 21Max ScholzeD
- 93BénitoM
- 71Emerson Pedro VangaM
- 9Sydney van HooijdonkF
- 3Lucas MincarelliD
- 51Diogo PintoG
- 22David GriloG
- 79Atanas ChernevD
- 4Bernardo SchappoD
Form going into Alverca vs Estrela
Alverca
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to FC Porto9 August 2026
Estrela
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Sporting CP8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Alverca | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 | Estrela | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Alverca vs Estrela
- 31 January 2026Alverca 1–1 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 25 August 2025Estrela 2–2 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Alverca and Estrela
Alverca
GoalsAssists
- Vivaldo Semedo30
Estrela
GoalsAssists
- L. Antonetti51
- I. Stoica42
- A. Marcus41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Alverca and Estrela drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Alverca at 68% and given a draw 16%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: L. Antonetti 51' for Estrela, Ian Luccas 58' for Alverca, V. Semedo 62' for Alverca, A. Marcus 69' for Estrela. Sent off: Chiquinho (Alverca) 74'. On expected goals it finished 1.75–1.29.