Sporting CP
vs
Guimaraes
Primeira Liga prediction
The model makes it 70% Sporting CP, 17% draw, 13% Guimaraes — fair odds of 1.43, 5.88 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Sporting CP 2.69, Guimaraes 1.12.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Sporting CP
- D2-2away to Estrela8 August 2026
Guimaraes
- L0-1Arouca8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sporting CP | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Guimaraes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Sporting CP vs Guimaraes
- 4 May 2026Sporting CP 5–1 GuimaraesPrimeira Liga
- 6 January 2026Sporting CP 1–2 GuimaraesTaça da Liga
- 23 December 2025Guimaraes 1–4 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 17 May 2025Sporting CP 2–0 GuimaraesPrimeira Liga
- 3 January 2025Guimaraes 4–4 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 21 April 2024Sporting CP 3–0 GuimaraesPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers
Sporting CP
- R. Zalazar1 goals1 assists
- F. Ioannidis1 goals
Guimaraes
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sporting CP carry a model rating of 7.04 against 6.76 for Guimaraes. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Sporting CP D; Guimaraes L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.69 goals for Sporting CP and 1.12 for Guimaraes. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sporting CP rate 1.28 in attack and 0.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Guimaraes rate 0.92 and 1.11.
That points to 73% for over two and a half goals and 63% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 2-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sporting CP the highest probability at 70%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.69 expected goals for Sporting CP against 1.12 for Guimaraes. Sporting CP's attack/defence rating is 1.28/0.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.11 for Guimaraes.