14 August 2026, 19:15 UTC

Sporting CP vs Guimaraes Primeira Liga prediction & result

Lisbon
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Sporting CP 3-2 Guimaraes.

Before kick-off the model made it 69% Sporting CP, 17% draw, 14% Guimaraes — fair odds of 1.45, 5.88 and 7.14.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sporting CP at 69%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sporting CP97%Draw3%Guimaraes0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽F. Goncalvesassist: F. Ioannidis
9'
⚽F. Ioannidisassist: G. Catamo
22'
Sergi Altimira
24'
26'
Thiago Balieiro
38'
Óscar Rivas
⚽S. Altimiraassist: F. Ioannidis
41'
46'
🔁Magaout: T. Strata
46'
🔁Beniout: L. Doucet
46'
🔁O. Camaraout: M. Nogueira
Geny Catamo
55'
64'
Miguel Nogueira
🔁F. Goncalvesout: L. Suarez
66'
🔁G. Catamoout: Luis Guilherme
66'
66'
⚽Samuassist: M. Nogueira
68'
⚽A. Ndoyeassist: T. Strata
Eduardo Quaresma
69'
🔁F. Ioannidisout: J. Derry
75'
77'
🔁G. Nogueiraout: S. Verdi
78'
Gustavo Silva
🔁G. Vagiannidisout: I. Fresneda
83'
88'
🔁Samuout: P. Ouotro
Gonçalo Inácio
90+1'

Match stats — Sporting CP vs Guimaraes

56%Possession0%
5Shots0
3On target0
5Corners0
1.12xG0

Line-ups

Sporting CP 4-2-3-1
  • 1R. SilvaG
  • 13G. VagiannidisD
  • 72E. QuaresmaD
  • 25G. InacioD
  • 20M. AraujoD
  • 5S. AltimiraM
  • 77I. DoumbiaM
  • 10G. CatamoM
  • 17R. ZalazarM
  • 58F. GoncalvesM
  • 7F. IoannidisF
Substitutes
  • 12J. VirginiaG
  • 50R. DiasD
  • 6Z. DebastD
  • 22I. FresnedaD
  • 55I. BaD
  • 4S. AndersenM
  • 21Pedro LimaM
  • 73E. FelicissimoM
  • 28J. DerryF
Coach: Rui Borges

Form going into Sporting CP vs Guimaraes

Sporting CP

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to Estrela8 August 2026

Guimaraes

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1Arouca8 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Sporting CP vs Guimaraes

  • 4 May 2026Sporting CP 5–1 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
  • 6 January 2026Sporting CP 1–2 Vitória SCTaça da Liga
  • 23 December 2025Vitória SC 1–4 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
  • 17 May 2025Sporting CP 2–0 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
  • 3 January 2025Vitória SC 4–4 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga

Leading scorers: Sporting CP and Guimaraes

Sporting CP

GoalsAssists

  • L. Suárez91
  • Flávio Gonçalves31

Guimaraes

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sporting CP beat Guimaraes 3–2. The model had made a win for Sporting CP its most likely outcome, at 69%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: F. Goncalves 9' for Sporting CP, F. Ioannidis 22' for Sporting CP, S. Altimira 41' for Sporting CP, Samu 66' for Vitória SC, A. Ndoye 68' for Vitória SC.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.