15 August 2026, 19:30 UTC

Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano La Liga prediction & result

Sevilla
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Sevilla 2-1 Rayo Vallecano.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Sevilla, 26% draw, 28% Rayo Vallecano — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sevilla at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sevilla3%Draw92%Rayo Vallecano5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
⚽A. Garcia
•Isaac Romero
38'
Isaac Romero
45+3'
🔁N. Guilenout: Peque
46'
🔁I. Romeroout: R. Ure
46'
⚽J. Guridi (pen)
52'
Jon Guridi
60'
64'
🔁I. Palazonout: S. Camello
65'
🔁R. Ntekaout: Alemao
67'
Álvaro García
🔁M. Sierraout: R. Vargas
70'
70'
🔁A. Garciaout: F. Perez
75'
Unai López
76'
Fran Pérez
🔁Osoout: C. Ejuke
78'
78'
🔁O. Valentinout: P. Fernandez
78'
🔁U. Lopezout: P. Diaz
Gabriel Suazo
81'
🔁J. Guridiout: M. Bueno
82'
Kike Salas
88'
Lucien Agoumé
90+12'
90+12'
Alemão
⚽Peque (pen)
90'

Match stats — Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano

49%Possession51%
13Shots6
4On target3
1Corners2
2.3xG2

Goals against chances

Sevilla2 from 2.30 xGabout what the chances were worth
Rayo Vallecano1 from 2.00 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sevilla 4-2-3-1
  • 1O. VlachodimosG
  • 2J. IglesiasD
  • 12A. SanganteD
  • 4K. SalasD
  • 17G. SuazoD
  • 6L. AgoumeM
  • 27N. Guilen
  • 30M. SierraM
  • 18J. GuridiM
  • 19OsoM
  • 16I. RomeroF
Substitutes
  • 13FranG
  • 22J. A. CarmonaD
  • 5CastrinD
  • 34I. MunozD
  • 3J. DiazD
  • 11R. VargasM
  • 28M. BuenoM
  • 39E. AltozanoM
  • 21C. EjukeF
Coach: Luis Garcia Plaza
Rayo Vallecano 4-2-3-1
  • 13A. BatallaG
  • 2A. RatiuD
  • 24F. LejeuneD
  • 6P. CissD
  • 20I. BalliuD
  • 8U. LopezM
  • 23O. ValentinM
  • 19J. de FrutosM
  • 7I. PalazonM
  • 18A. GarciaM
  • 11R. NtekaF
Substitutes
  • 1D. CardenasG
  • 33J. VertrouwdD
  • 22P. FernandezD
  • 26M. de las SiasD
  • 27S. Lozano
  • 4P. DiazM
  • 34I. Alonso MartinD
  • 31M. RomanM
  • 9AlemaoF
Coach: Benat San Jose

La Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Sevilla125341719-218
14Rayo Vallecano113351521-612

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano

  • 8 March 2026Sevilla 1–1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
  • 28 September 2025Rayo Vallecano 0–1 SevillaLa Liga
  • 1 March 2025Rayo Vallecano 1–1 SevillaLa Liga
  • 24 November 2024Sevilla 1–0 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
  • 5 February 2024Rayo Vallecano 1–2 SevillaLa Liga

The full Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano record →

Leading scorers: Sevilla and Rayo Vallecano

Sevilla

No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.

Rayo Vallecano

GoalsAssists

  • Sergio Camello72

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sevilla beat Rayo Vallecano 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Sevilla at 46%. The goals: A. Garcia 4' for Rayo Vallecano, J. Guridi (penalty) 52' for Sevilla, Peque (penalty) 90' for Sevilla. Sent off: Kike Salas (Sevilla) 88'. On expected goals it finished 2.30–2.00.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.