Sevilla
vs
Rayo Vallecano
La Liga prediction
The model makes it 46% Sevilla, 26% draw, 28% Rayo Vallecano — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Sevilla 1.59, Rayo Vallecano 1.21.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano
- 8 March 2026Sevilla 1–1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 28 September 2025Rayo Vallecano 0–1 SevillaLa Liga
- 1 March 2025Rayo Vallecano 1–1 SevillaLa Liga
- 24 November 2024Sevilla 1–0 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 5 February 2024Rayo Vallecano 1–2 SevillaLa Liga
- 7 October 2023Sevilla 2–2 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sevilla carry a model rating of 6.87 against 6.86 for Rayo Vallecano. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.59 goals for Sevilla and 1.21 for Rayo Vallecano. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sevilla rate 0.78 in attack and 0.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rayo Vallecano rate 1.09 and 1.08.
That points to 53% for over two and a half goals and 56% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sevilla the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Sevilla against 1.21 for Rayo Vallecano. Sevilla's attack/defence rating is 0.78/0.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.09/1.08 for Rayo Vallecano.