16 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Arouca vs Moreirense Primeira Liga prediction & result

Arouca
Full time4 – 0

Final score: Arouca 4-0 Moreirense.

Before kick-off the model made it 60% Arouca, 24% draw, 16% Moreirense — fair odds of 1.67, 4.17 and 6.25.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Arouca at 60%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
Maracás
Javi Sánchez
16'
⚽Maracas (OG)
23'
⚽J. Fontanassist: H. Lee
30'
Ivan Barbero
41'
44'
Kiko
⚽I. Barberoassist: N. Djouahra
45'
46'
🔁Guilherme Liberatoout: D. Pinto
46'
🔁A. Vieiraout: J. Veloso
55'
Nile John
🔁I. Barberoout: D. Nandin
59'
63'
🔁Landersonout: Kiko Bondoso
65'
Leandro Santos
🔁H. Leeout: B. Mansilla
72'
🔁A. Trezzaout: P. Gozalbez
72'
72'
🔁Rodriout: M. Stjepanovic
Dylan Nandín
75'
🔁T. Fukuiout: Pedro Santos
79'
🔁E. van Eeout: M. Flores
80'
85'
🔁L. Santosout: M. Dacosta Gonzalez
⚽D. Nandinassist: N. Djouahra
90'

Match stats — Arouca vs Moreirense

51%Possession49%
14Shots5
6On target1
5Corners3
2.14xG0.49

Goals against chances

Arouca4 from 2.14 xGmore than the chances were worth
Moreirense0 from 0.49 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Arouca 4-2-3-1
  • 12I. De ArruabarrenaG
  • 28Tiago EsgaioD
  • 15J. SanchezD
  • 3J. FontanD
  • 18O. LebedenkoD
  • 6E. van EeM
  • 8T. FukuiM
  • 19A. TrezzaM
  • 14H. LeeM
  • 7N. DjouahraM
  • 17I. BarberoF
Substitutes
  • 1J. VinarcikG
  • 71M. DuarteG
  • 5B. PopovicD
  • 37M. ClimentD
  • 89Pedro SantosM
  • 24B. MansillaF
  • 10P. GozalbezM
  • 21M. FloresM
  • 9F. MayuluF
Coach: Vasco Seabra
Moreirense 4-2-3-1
  • 13A. FerreiraG
  • 2L. SantosD
  • 66G. BatistaD
  • 26MaracasD
  • 27KikoD
  • 23N. JohnM
  • 65Guilherme Liberato
  • 89A. VieiraM
  • 21RodriM
  • 11LandersonM
  • 9A. Duville-ParsemainF
Substitutes
  • 1AranhaG
  • 4Kevyn MonteiroD
  • 76D. PintoD
  • 17A. MartinezD
  • 20J. VelosoM
  • 8M. StjepanovicM
  • 44M. Dacosta GonzalezF
  • 10Kiko BondosoF
Coach: Vasco Costa

Form going into Arouca vs Moreirense

Arouca

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Guimaraes8 August 2026

Moreirense

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2SC Braga9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Arouca11623138+520
9Moreirense114251318-514

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Arouca vs Moreirense

  • 21 March 2026Moreirense 0–1 AroucaPrimeira Liga
  • 2 November 2025Arouca 0–2 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
  • 24 January 2025Arouca 1–0 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
  • 18 August 2024Moreirense 3–1 AroucaPrimeira Liga
  • 17 March 2024Moreirense 1–0 AroucaPrimeira Liga

The full Arouca vs Moreirense record →

Leading scorers: Arouca and Moreirense

Arouca

GoalsAssists

  • Barbero50

Moreirense

GoalsAssists

  • N. John30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Arouca beat Moreirense 4–0. The model had made a win for Arouca its most likely outcome, at 60%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Maracas (own goal) 23' for Arouca, J. Fontan 30' for Arouca, I. Barbero 45' for Arouca, D. Nandin 90' for Arouca. On expected goals it finished 2.14–0.49.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.