Arouca
vs
Moreirense
Primeira Liga prediction
The model makes it 59% Arouca, 23% draw, 18% Moreirense — fair odds of 1.69, 4.35 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Arouca 1.88, Moreirense 0.94.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Arouca
- W1-0away to Guimaraes8 August 2026
Moreirense
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
Where they stand. Moreirense has not started the league season yet. Full tables
Head-to-head: Arouca vs Moreirense
- 21 March 2026Moreirense 0–1 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 2 November 2025Arouca 0–2 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 24 January 2025Arouca 1–0 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 18 August 2024Moreirense 3–1 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 17 March 2024Moreirense 1–0 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 27 October 2023Arouca 0–1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
Leading scorers
Arouca
- Barbero1 goals
Moreirense
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Arouca carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.48 for Moreirense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Arouca W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.88 goals for Arouca and 0.94 for Moreirense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Arouca rate 0.77 in attack and 1.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Moreirense rate 0.61 and 1.29.
That points to 53% for over two and a half goals and 52% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (11%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arouca the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Arouca against 0.94 for Moreirense. Arouca's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.29 for Moreirense.