Academico Viseu
vs
Santa Clara
Primeira Liga prediction
The model makes it 31% Academico Viseu, 31% draw, 38% Santa Clara — fair odds of 3.23, 3.23 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Academico Viseu 1.01, Santa Clara 1.16.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Academico Viseu vs Santa Clara
- 4 March 2024Academico Viseu 1–1 Santa ClaraSegunda Liga
- 6 October 2023Santa Clara 2–0 Academico ViseuSegunda Liga
- 12 May 2018Academico Viseu 2–1 Santa ClaraSegunda Liga
- 6 January 2018Santa Clara 0–0 Academico ViseuSegunda Liga
- 26 March 2017Academico Viseu 2–1 Santa ClaraSegunda Liga
- 19 October 2016Santa Clara 1–2 Academico ViseuSegunda Liga
The two sides
Academico Viseu carry a model rating of 6.71 against 6.91 for Santa Clara. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.01 goals for Academico Viseu and 1.16 for Santa Clara. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Academico Viseu rate 0.65 in attack and 0.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Santa Clara rate 0.90 and 0.82.
That points to 37% for over two and a half goals and 44% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Santa Clara the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Academico Viseu against 1.16 for Santa Clara. Academico Viseu's attack/defence rating is 0.65/0.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/0.82 for Santa Clara.