15 August 2026, 19:30 UTC

Rio Ave vs FC Porto Primeira Liga prediction & result

Vila do Conde
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Rio Ave 0-2 FC Porto.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% Rio Ave, 26% draw, 46% FC Porto — fair odds of 3.57, 3.85 and 2.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Porto at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rio Ave0%Draw1%FC Porto99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
⚽N. Perezassist: G. Veiga
34'
•Jakub Kiwior
🔁R. Galcikout: D. Spikic
59'
66'
🔁D. Gulout: Hwang In-Beom
66'
🔁William Gomesout: B. Sainz
69'
🔁N. Perezout: A. Costa
69'
🔁G. Veigaout: Andre Silva
🔁F. Petrassoout: J. Lomboto
75'
🔁T. Monteiroout: M. Vrousai
75'
82'
⚽B. Sainzassist: Hwang In-Beom
🔁G. Liavasout: M. Patricio
83'
🔁D. Nascimentoout: Samuel
83'
89'
🔁Pepêout: S. Eustaquio

Match stats — Rio Ave vs FC Porto

48%Possession52%
13Shots14
1On target6
6Corners6
0.58xG1.97

Goals against chances

Rio Ave0 from 0.58 xGless than the chances were worth
FC Porto2 from 1.97 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Rio Ave 4-3-3
  • 99E. van der GouwG
  • 54G. LiavasD
  • 23F. PetrassoD
  • 39Gustavo ManchaD
  • 6N. AbbeyD
  • 30R. Galcik
  • 44T. NikitscherM
  • 90D. NascimentoM
  • 11J. BlesaF
  • 9T. MonteiroF
  • 7Diogo Bezerra
Substitutes
  • 22K. ChamorroG
  • 14J. BrabecD
  • 13J. LombotoD
  • 60CaikeD
  • 83D. BaldeD
  • 79M. PatricioF
  • 70A. WenckM
  • 17M. VrousaiF
  • 27T. MedinaM
Coach: Sotiris Sylaidopoulos
FC Porto 4-3-3
  • 99D. CostaG
  • 18N. PerezD
  • 5J. BednarekD
  • 4J. KiwiorD
  • 12ZaiduD
  • 8V. FroholdtM
  • 13P. RosarioM
  • 10G. VeigaM
  • 7William GomesF
  • 27D. GulF
  • 11PepêF
Substitutes
  • 24J. CostaG
  • 50J. AfonsoG
  • 21D. PrpicD
  • 74F. MouraD
  • 20A. CostaD
  • 6S. EustaquioM
  • 16Hwang In-BeomM
  • 86R. MoraM
  • 19Andre SilvaF
Coach: Francesco Farioli

Form going into Rio Ave vs FC Porto

Rio Ave

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to GIL Vicente9 August 2026

FC Porto

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0Alverca9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Rio Ave11218924-157
1FC Porto111100275+2233

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rio Ave vs FC Porto

  • 22 February 2026FC Porto 1–0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
  • 19 September 2025Rio Ave 0–3 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
  • 3 February 2025Rio Ave 2–2 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
  • 24 August 2024FC Porto 2–0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
  • 3 February 2024FC Porto 0–0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga

The full Rio Ave vs FC Porto record →

Leading scorers: Rio Ave and FC Porto

Rio Ave

No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

FC Porto

GoalsAssists

  • Borja Sainz61
  • Gabri Veiga54
  • André Silva42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Porto won 2–0 at Rio Ave. The model had made a win for FC Porto its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: N. Perez 11' for FC Porto, B. Sainz 82' for FC Porto. On expected goals it finished 0.58–1.97.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.