Al Diriyah
vs
Al Taawon
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al Diriyah 1–0 Al Taawon
The model makes it 43% Al Diriyah, 30% draw, 27% Al Taawon — fair odds of 2.33, 3.33 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Al Diriyah 1.40, Al Taawon 0.88.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Al Diriyah are 8th on 11 points from 7 games; Al Taawon are 17th on 3 points from 7 games — Pro League.
- Al Diriyah have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Abha.
- Al Taawon have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-6 defeat at home to Al-Hilal.
All Saudi Pro League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Al Diriyah vs Al Taawon
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Diriyah at 43% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al Diriyah vs Al Taawon
Al Diriyah
- D0-0Abha13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Al-Fateh9 September 2026
- L0-2Al-Qadisiyah FC3 September 2026
- W3-0away to Al-Ettifaq29 August 2026
- D1-1Al Kholood26 August 2026
Al Taawon
- L0-6Al-Hilal12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Al-Hazm8 September 2026
- D0-0Al-Fateh5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Al-Nassr28 August 2026
- D0-0Al-Fayha25 August 2026
What these results say
- Al Taawon did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Al Taawon failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Al Diriyah | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 11 |
| 17 | Al Taawon | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
Al Diriyah carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.46 for Al Taawon. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for Al Diriyah and 0.88 for Al Taawon. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al Diriyah rate 0.62 in attack and 0.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al Taawon rate 0.63 and 1.38.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al Diriyah a 0.2% chance of the title and Al Taawon 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Diriyah the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Al Diriyah against 0.88 for Al Taawon. Al Diriyah's attack/defence rating is 0.62/0.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.38 for Al Taawon.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al Diriyah at home · Al Taawon away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al Diriyah 7, Al Taawon 7.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Al Diriyah
- vs Al Riyadh20 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 48%
- at Al-Ittihad23 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 31%
- vs NEOM30 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 36%
- at Al-Faisaly FC5 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 41%
Al Taawon
- vs Al-Qadisiyah FC20 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 22%
- at Al Riyadh24 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 38%
- vs Al-Ettifaq31 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 34%
- at Al-Ahli Jeddah5 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 19%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.