NEOM
vs
Al-Ettifaq
Pro League prediction
Our model says: NEOM 2–1 Al-Ettifaq
The model makes it 43% NEOM, 27% draw, 30% Al-Ettifaq — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: NEOM 1.83, Al-Ettifaq 1.35.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- NEOM are 5th on 15 points from 7 games; Al-Ettifaq are 9th on 11 points from 7 games — Pro League.
- NEOM are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 4-2 win at home to Al-Fateh.
- Al-Ettifaq are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 3-3 draw away to Al-Qadisiyah FC.
- Last 2 meetings: both drawn; the most recent, 21 May 2026, ended NEOM 1–1 Al-Ettifaq.
All Saudi Pro League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq
Has the model earned this number?
It puts NEOM at 43% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq
NEOM
- W4-2Al-Fateh13 September 2026
- W2-0away to Al-Hilal7 September 2026
- W3-0Al Khaleej Saihat3 September 2026
- L0-1away to Al Riyadh28 August 2026
- L0-2Al-Qadisiyah FC24 August 2026
Al-Ettifaq
- D3-3away to Al-Qadisiyah FC11 September 2026
- D0-0Al-Faisaly FC8 September 2026
- W1-0away to Abha4 September 2026
- L0-3Al Diriyah29 August 2026
- L2-3Al-Nassr25 August 2026
What these results say
- Al-Ettifaq failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | NEOM | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 15 |
| 9 | Al-Ettifaq | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq
- 21 May 2026NEOM 1–1 Al-EttifaqPro League
- 21 January 2026Al-Ettifaq 0–0 NEOMPro League
Leading scorers: NEOM and Al-Ettifaq
NEOM
- A. Lacazette5 goals1 assist
- A. Koné4 goals1 assist
Al-Ettifaq
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
NEOM carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.56 for Al-Ettifaq. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.83 goals for NEOM and 1.35 for Al-Ettifaq. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
NEOM rate 0.78 in attack and 1.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Ettifaq rate 0.80 and 1.43.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives NEOM a 0.4% chance of the title and Al-Ettifaq 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NEOM the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for NEOM against 1.35 for Al-Ettifaq. NEOM's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.43 for Al-Ettifaq.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
NEOM at home · Al-Ettifaq away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: NEOM 7, Al-Ettifaq 7.
NEOM score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Al-Ettifaq have let in 1 there.
Al-Ettifaq score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); NEOM have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
NEOM
- at Al-Nassr20 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 24%
- vs Abha24 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 50%
- at Al Diriyah30 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 33%
- at Al-Ittihad5 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 33%
Al-Ettifaq
- vs Al-Ittihad20 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 34%
- at Al Kholood24 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 38%
- at Al Taawon31 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 38%
- vs Al-Hilal5 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.