Al-Ittihad
vs
Al Shabab
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al-Ittihad 2–1 Al Shabab
The model makes it 49% Al-Ittihad, 26% draw, 25% Al Shabab — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Al-Ittihad 2.06, Al Shabab 1.14.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Al-Ittihad are 2nd on 17 points from 7 games; Al Shabab are 14th on 4 points from 7 games — Pro League.
- Al-Ittihad are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 3-1 win away to Al-Faisaly FC.
- Al Shabab have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Al-Fayha.
- Last 6 meetings: Al-Ittihad 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 17 May 2026, ended Al Shabab 3–2 Al-Ittihad.
All Saudi Pro League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Al-Ittihad vs Al Shabab
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Ittihad at 49% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al-Ittihad vs Al Shabab
Al-Ittihad
- W3-1away to Al-Faisaly FC11 September 2026
- W2-1Al-Fayha8 September 2026
- W2-1Al-Nassr5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Al-Fateh29 August 2026
- W3-2Al-Hazm24 August 2026
Al Shabab
- D0-0Al-Fayha12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Al Kholood9 September 2026
- L0-2Al-Hilal4 September 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Hazm30 August 2026
- D3-3Al Riyadh25 August 2026
What these results say
- Al-Ittihad went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Al-Ittihad won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Ittihad scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al Shabab did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Al Shabab conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Al-Ittihad | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 17 |
| 14 | Al Shabab | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Ittihad vs Al Shabab
- 17 May 2026Al Shabab 3–2 Al-IttihadPro League
- 27 December 2025Al-Ittihad 2–0 Al ShababPro League
- 29 November 2025Al-Ittihad 4–1 Al ShababKing's Cup
- 20 May 2025Al Shabab 2–3 Al-IttihadPro League
- 1 April 2025Al-Ittihad 3–2 Al ShababKing's Cup
- 22 January 2025Al-Ittihad 2–1 Al ShababPro League
Leading scorers: Al-Ittihad and Al Shabab
Al-Ittihad
- G. Ilenikhena4 goals2 assists
- S. Bergwijn4 goals1 assist
- Y. En-Nesyri4 goals
Al Shabab
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Al-Ittihad carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.43 for Al Shabab. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.06 goals for Al-Ittihad and 1.14 for Al Shabab. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Ittihad rate 0.84 in attack and 1.19 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al Shabab rate 0.65 and 1.50.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al-Ittihad a 1.3% chance of the title and Al Shabab 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Ittihad the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Al-Ittihad against 1.14 for Al Shabab. Al-Ittihad's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.5 for Al Shabab.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al-Ittihad at home · Al Shabab away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al-Ittihad 7, Al Shabab 7.
Al-Ittihad score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Al Shabab have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Al-Ittihad
- at Al-Ettifaq20 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 39%
- vs Al Diriyah23 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 38%
- at Neftchi Fergana26 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 45%
Al Shabab
- vs Al-Faisaly FC19 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 40%
- at Al-Fateh22 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 35%
- vs Al-Ahli Jeddah30 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 22%
- at Abha5 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.