Al-Ahli Jeddah
vs
Al Khaleej Saihat
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2–0 Al Khaleej Saihat
The model makes it 70% Al-Ahli Jeddah, 18% draw, 12% Al Khaleej Saihat — fair odds of 1.43, 5.56 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.74, Al Khaleej Saihat 0.86.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Al-Ahli Jeddah are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Al-Ahli Jeddah are 6th on 15 points from 8 games; Al Khaleej Saihat are 14th on 6 points from 8 games — Pro League.
- Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-0 win away to Al-Fateh.
- Al Khaleej Saihat have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Al-Ettifaq.
- Last 6 meetings: Al-Ahli Jeddah 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 20 May 2026, ended Al Khaleej Saihat 1–4 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Ahli Jeddah at 70% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat
Al-Ahli Jeddah
- W4-0away to Al-Fateh9 October 2026
- W3-1Al-Hazm11 September 2026
- L2-3away to Al-Qadisiyah FC8 September 2026
- W5-0Al Riyadh4 September 2026
- L0-3away to Al-Hilal1 September 2026
Al Khaleej Saihat
- D1-1away to Al-Ettifaq10 October 2026
- D1-1Al-Nassr12 September 2026
- D0-0Al Riyadh7 September 2026
- L0-3away to NEOM3 September 2026
- L1-5Al-Hilal28 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Al-Ahli Jeddah had three goals or more.
- Al-Ahli Jeddah scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al Khaleej Saihat did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Al Khaleej Saihat conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 15 |
| 14 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 8 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Chance to finish in the top four · 75% today
Al Khaleej Saihat
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 34% today
From our Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat
- 20 May 2026Al Khaleej Saihat 1–4 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
- 20 January 2026Al-Ahli Jeddah 4–1 Al Khaleej SaihatPro League
- 7 March 2025Al-Ahli Jeddah 2–2 Al Khaleej SaihatPro League
- 18 October 2024Al Khaleej Saihat 0–3 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
- 29 December 2023Al-Ahli Jeddah 1–0 Al Khaleej SaihatPro League
- 17 August 2023Al Khaleej Saihat 1–3 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
Leading scorers: Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Khaleej Saihat
Al-Ahli Jeddah
GoalsAssists
- I. Toney111
- Trincão52
Al Khaleej Saihat
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Al-Ahli Jeddah carry a model rating of 6.91 against 6.38 for Al Khaleej Saihat. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.74 goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0.86 for Al Khaleej Saihat. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Ahli Jeddah rate 1.13 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al Khaleej Saihat rate 0.58 and 1.48.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 6.5% chance of the title and Al Khaleej Saihat 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah the highest probability at 70%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.74 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah against 0.86 for Al Khaleej Saihat. Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack/defence rating is 1.13/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.48 for Al Khaleej Saihat.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al-Ahli Jeddah at home · Al Khaleej Saihat away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al-Ahli Jeddah 8, Al Khaleej Saihat 8.
Al-Ahli Jeddah score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Al Khaleej Saihat have let in 6 there.
Al Khaleej Saihat score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); Al-Ahli Jeddah have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Al-Ahli Jeddah
- vs Al-Gharafa26 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 83%
- at Al Shabab30 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 59%
- at Al Sadd2 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 48%
Al Khaleej Saihat
- vs Al-Hazm29 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 35%
- at Al Kholood5 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 32%
- vs Al-Ittihad20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.