Al-Fateh
vs
Al Riyadh
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al-Fateh 2–1 Al Riyadh
The model makes it 41% Al-Fateh, 27% draw, 32% Al Riyadh — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Al-Fateh 1.60, Al Riyadh 1.34.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,036 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 22 October 2026. Al-Fateh's rating is built from 44 Saudi Pro League matches and Al Riyadh's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 697 matches.
Key facts
- Al-Fateh are 16th on 6 points from 10 games; Al Riyadh are 12th on 9 points from 9 games — Pro League.
- Al-Fateh have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Al Khaleej Saihat.
- Al Riyadh have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Al Diriyah.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended Al Riyadh 1–0 Al-Fateh.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Fateh at 41% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 2,039 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh
Al-Fateh
- L2-3Al Khaleej Saihat18 October 2026
- W3-2away to Al-Hazm15 October 2026
- L0-4Al-Ahli Jeddah9 October 2026
- L2-4away to NEOM13 September 2026
- L1-2Al Diriyah9 September 2026
Al Riyadh
- L0-1away to Al Diriyah20 October 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Fayha11 October 2026
- W2-0Al Kholood13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Al Khaleej Saihat7 September 2026
- L0-5away to Al-Ahli Jeddah4 September 2026
What these results say
- Al-Fateh conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Al-Fateh had three goals or more.
- Al-Fateh failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al Riyadh failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al Riyadh had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 6 |
| 12 | Al Riyadh | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh
- 10 May 2026Al Riyadh 1–0 Al-FatehPro League
- 13 January 2026Al-Fateh 3–1 Al RiyadhPro League
- 27 October 2025Al-Fateh 2–0 Al RiyadhKing's Cup
- 23 April 2025Al Riyadh 2–2 Al-FatehPro League
- 28 November 2024Al-Fateh 1–2 Al RiyadhPro League
- 2 May 2024Al-Fateh 2–2 Al RiyadhPro League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Al-Fateh carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.34 for Al Riyadh. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.60 goals for Al-Fateh and 1.34 for Al Riyadh. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Fateh rate 0.61 in attack and 1.57 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al Riyadh rate 0.58 and 1.61.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Al Riyadh, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Fateh the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Al-Fateh against 1.34 for Al Riyadh. Al-Fateh's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.61 for Al Riyadh.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al-Fateh at home · Al Riyadh away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al-Fateh 10, Al Riyadh 9.
Al-Fateh score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Al Riyadh have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Al-Fateh
- at Al-Fayha20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 31%
- at Al-Qadisiyah FC26 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 10%
- vs Al Kholood3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 38%
Al Riyadh
- vs Al-Hazm20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 33%
- at Abha26 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.