Al-Fateh
vs
Al Shabab
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al-Fateh 1–2 Al Shabab
The model makes it 32% Al-Fateh, 28% draw, 40% Al Shabab — fair odds of 3.13, 3.57 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Al-Fateh 1.26, Al Shabab 1.49.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Al Shabab: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Al-Fateh are 16th on 3 points from 8 games; Al Shabab are 12th on 7 points from 8 games — Pro League.
- Al-Fateh have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat at home to Al-Ahli Jeddah.
- Al Shabab have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Al Taawon.
- Last 6 meetings: Al-Fateh 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 28 April 2026, ended Al Shabab 1–1 Al-Fateh.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Shabab at 40% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab
Al-Fateh
- L0-4Al-Ahli Jeddah9 October 2026
- L2-4away to NEOM13 September 2026
- L1-2Al Diriyah9 September 2026
- D0-0away to Al Taawon5 September 2026
- D0-0Al-Ittihad29 August 2026
Al Shabab
- W3-0Al Taawon11 October 2026
- D0-0Al-Fayha12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Al Kholood9 September 2026
- L0-2Al-Hilal4 September 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Hazm30 August 2026
What these results say
- Al-Fateh did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Al Shabab failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15 | -11 | 3 |
| 12 | Al Shabab | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Al-Fateh
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 54% today
Al Shabab
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 14% today
From our Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab
- 28 April 2026Al Shabab 1–1 Al-FatehPro League
- 3 January 2026Al-Fateh 2–0 Al ShababPro League
- 1 May 2025Al-Fateh 3–1 Al ShababPro League
- 5 December 2024Al Shabab 2–2 Al-FatehPro League
- 27 May 2024Al Shabab 3–2 Al-FatehPro League
- 15 December 2023Al-Fateh 1–1 Al ShababPro League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Al-Fateh carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.49 for Al Shabab. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for Al-Fateh and 1.49 for Al Shabab. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Fateh rate 0.54 in attack and 1.47 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al Shabab rate 0.69 and 1.43.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Shabab the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Al-Fateh against 1.49 for Al Shabab. Al-Fateh's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.43 for Al Shabab.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al-Fateh at home · Al Shabab away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al-Fateh 8, Al Shabab 8.
Al-Fateh score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); Al Shabab have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Al-Fateh
- at Al-Hilal31 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 8%
- vs Al Riyadh5 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 38%
- at Al-Fayha20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 28%
Al Shabab
- vs Al-Ahli Jeddah30 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 19%
- at Abha5 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 41%
- vs Al-Ettifaq20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.