Stade Tunisien
vs
Club Africain
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Stade Tunisien 1–0 Club Africain
The model makes it 37% Stade Tunisien, 28% draw, 35% Club Africain — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Stade Tunisien 1.36, Club Africain 1.33.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 934 settled matches.
A tight game: Stade Tunisien and Club Africain are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 22 October 2026. Stade Tunisien's rating is built from 33 Ligue 1 (Tunisia) matches and Club Africain's from 33, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Stade Tunisien are 10th on 7 points from 4 games; Club Africain are 5th on 9 points from 4 games — Ligue 1.
- Stade Tunisien have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to ES Metlaoui.
- Club Africain have won 3 of their last 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to US Ben Guerdane.
- Last 6 meetings: Club Africain 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 3 May 2026, ended Club Africain 2–0 Stade Tunisien.
More Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Stade Tunisien vs Club Africain
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Stade Tunisien at 37% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 3,406 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Stade Tunisien vs Club Africain
Stade Tunisien
- W2-1away to ES Metlaoui11 October 2026
- W3-1away to ES Hammam-Sousse12 September 2026
- L1-2away to US Monastirienne29 August 2026
- D1-1CS Sfaxien22 August 2026
Club Africain
- L1-2away to US Ben Guerdane10 October 2026
- W1-0ES Zarzis20 September 2026
- W1-0ES Hammam-Sousse29 August 2026
- W1-0away to ES Metlaoui23 August 2026
What these results say
- Stade Tunisien scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Stade Tunisien conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Stade Tunisien.
- Club Africain scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Club Africain won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Club Africain kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Stade Tunisien | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 | Club Africain | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Stade Tunisien vs Club Africain
- 3 May 2026Club Africain 2–0 Stade TunisienLigue 1
- 6 November 2025Stade Tunisien 0–0 Club AfricainLigue 1
- 13 March 2025Club Africain 1–0 Stade TunisienLigue 1
- 30 November 2024Stade Tunisien 1–0 Club AfricainLigue 1
- 14 June 2024Stade Tunisien 1–1 Club AfricainLigue 1
- 13 April 2024Club Africain 0–0 Stade TunisienLigue 1
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Stade Tunisien carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.59 for Club Africain. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.36 goals for Stade Tunisien and 1.33 for Club Africain. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Stade Tunisien rate 0.71 in attack and 1.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Club Africain rate 0.70 and 1.18.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Club Africain, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stade Tunisien a 7.4% chance of the title and Club Africain 26.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Stade Tunisien the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Stade Tunisien against 1.33 for Club Africain. Stade Tunisien's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.18 for Club Africain.
Season stats
Stade Tunisien at home · Club Africain away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Stade Tunisien 4, Club Africain 4.
Stade Tunisien score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Club Africain have let in 1 there.
Club Africain score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Stade Tunisien have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Stade Tunisien
- vs CA Bizertin21 Nov · Ligue 1win 57%
- at Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer28 Nov · Ligue 1win 29%
- vs ES Tunis5 Dec · Ligue 1win 43%
Club Africain
- vs ES Tunis21 Nov · Ligue 1win 50%
- at ES Sahel28 Nov · Ligue 1win 48%
- vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane5 Dec · Ligue 1win 61%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.