Al-Hazm
vs
Al-Fayha
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al-Hazm 1–0 Al-Fayha
The model makes it 39% Al-Hazm, 28% draw, 33% Al-Fayha — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Al-Hazm 1.40, Al-Fayha 1.23.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Al-Hazm are 10th on 9 points from 8 games; Al-Fayha are 13th on 7 points from 8 games — Pro League.
- Al-Hazm have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to NEOM.
- Al-Fayha are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Al Riyadh.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 11 April 2026, ended Al-Hazm 2–0 Al-Fayha.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Hazm at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha
Al-Hazm
- D1-1NEOM10 October 2026
- L1-3away to Al-Ahli Jeddah11 September 2026
- W1-0Al Taawon8 September 2026
- D0-0away to Al-Faisaly FC5 September 2026
- D1-1Al Shabab30 August 2026
Al-Fayha
- D1-1Al Riyadh11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Al Shabab12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Al-Ittihad8 September 2026
- D2-2Al Kholood3 September 2026
- W3-2Abha28 August 2026
What these results say
- Al-Hazm failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Hazm scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al-Hazm had two goals or fewer.
- Al-Fayha failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Fayha scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Fayha conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Al-Hazm | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Al-Fayha | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Al-Hazm
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 10% today
Al-Fayha
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 21% today
From our Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha
- 11 April 2026Al-Hazm 2–0 Al-FayhaPro League
- 25 December 2025Al-Fayha 0–0 Al-HazmPro League
- 17 February 2024Al-Hazm 1–3 Al-FayhaPro League
- 25 August 2023Al-Fayha 0–0 Al-HazmPro League
- 7 May 2022Al-Hazm 3–1 Al-FayhaPro League
- 5 November 2021Al-Fayha 1–0 Al-HazmPro League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Al-Hazm carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.45 for Al-Fayha. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for Al-Hazm and 1.23 for Al-Fayha. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Hazm rate 0.62 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Fayha rate 0.62 and 1.38.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Hazm the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Al-Hazm against 1.23 for Al-Fayha. Al-Hazm's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.38 for Al-Fayha.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al-Hazm at home · Al-Fayha away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al-Hazm 8, Al-Fayha 8.
Al-Hazm score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Al-Fayha have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Al-Hazm
- at Al Khaleej Saihat29 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 37%
- vs Al-Nassr5 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 17%
- at Al Riyadh20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 39%
Al-Fayha
- vs Al-Faisaly FC31 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 42%
- at Al-Qadisiyah FC5 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 12%
- vs Al-Fateh20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.