Al-Hazm
vs
Al-Nassr
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al-Hazm 0–2 Al-Nassr
The model makes it 16% Al-Hazm, 22% draw, 62% Al-Nassr — fair odds of 6.25, 4.55 and 1.61. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Al-Hazm 0.93, Al-Nassr 2.27.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,433 settled matches.
One-sided: Al-Nassr are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 22 October 2026. Al-Hazm's rating is built from 44 Saudi Pro League matches and Al-Nassr's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 697 matches.
Key facts
- Al-Hazm are 11th on 9 points from 10 games; Al-Nassr are 3rd on 22 points from 9 games — Pro League.
- Al-Hazm are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Al-Hilal.
- Al-Nassr are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to NEOM.
- Last 6 meetings: Al-Nassr 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 February 2026, ended Al-Nassr 4–0 Al-Hazm.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Hazm vs Al-Nassr
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Nassr at 62% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 1,080 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al-Hazm vs Al-Nassr
Al-Hazm
- L0-1away to Al-Hilal19 October 2026
- L2-3Al-Fateh15 October 2026
- D1-1NEOM10 October 2026
- L1-3away to Al-Ahli Jeddah11 September 2026
- W1-0Al Taawon8 September 2026
Al-Nassr
- W1-0NEOM20 October 2026
- W3-0Al Diriyah9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Al Khaleej Saihat12 September 2026
- W2-1Abha9 September 2026
- L1-2away to Al-Ittihad5 September 2026
What these results say
- Al-Hazm failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Hazm scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Hazm conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Nassr scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Al-Hazm | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 9 |
| 3 | Al-Nassr | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 7 | +13 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Hazm vs Al-Nassr
- 21 February 2026Al-Nassr 4–0 Al-HazmPro League
- 25 October 2025Al-Hazm 0–2 Al-NassrPro League
- 23 September 2024Al-Hazm 1–2 Al-NassrKing's Cup
- 29 February 2024Al-Nassr 4–4 Al-HazmPro League
- 2 September 2023Al-Hazm 1–5 Al-NassrPro League
- 23 June 2022Al-Hazm 1–4 Al-NassrPro League
Leading scorers: Al-Hazm and Al-Nassr
Al-Hazm
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Al-Nassr
GoalsAssists
- Cristiano Ronaldo40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Al-Hazm carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.95 for Al-Nassr. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 0.93 goals for Al-Hazm and 2.27 for Al-Nassr. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Hazm rate 0.62 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Nassr rate 1.13 and 0.92.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al-Hazm a 0% chance of the title and Al-Nassr 17.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Nassr the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Al-Hazm against 2.27 for Al-Nassr. Al-Hazm's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.13/0.92 for Al-Nassr.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al-Hazm at home · Al-Nassr away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al-Hazm 10, Al-Nassr 9.
Al-Hazm score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Al-Nassr have let in 2 there.
Al-Nassr score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Al-Hazm have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Al-Hazm
- at Al Riyadh20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 39%
- at Al-Ettifaq26 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 30%
- vs Al-Qadisiyah FC3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 17%
Al-Nassr
No further matches on our board yet.
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.