Al-Ittihad
vs
NEOM
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al-Ittihad 2–1 NEOM
The model makes it 44% Al-Ittihad, 27% draw, 29% NEOM — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Al-Ittihad 1.61, NEOM 1.22.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,036 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Al-Ittihad are 4th on 20 points from 9 games; NEOM are 6th on 16 points from 10 games — Pro League.
- Al-Ittihad have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win away to Al-Ettifaq.
- NEOM are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Al-Nassr.
- Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 8 April 2026, ended Al-Ittihad 3–4 NEOM.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Ittihad vs NEOM
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Ittihad at 44% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 2,039 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al-Ittihad vs NEOM
Al-Ittihad
- W4-1away to Al-Ettifaq20 October 2026
- L2-3away to Al-Hilal10 October 2026
- W3-1away to Al-Faisaly FC11 September 2026
- W2-1Al-Fayha8 September 2026
- W2-1Al-Nassr5 September 2026
NEOM
- L0-1away to Al-Nassr20 October 2026
- L0-1Al-Ettifaq17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Hazm10 October 2026
- W4-2Al-Fateh13 September 2026
- W2-0away to Al-Hilal7 September 2026
What these results say
- Al-Ittihad scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Ittihad conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Al-Ittihad had three goals or more.
- NEOM conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for NEOM had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Al-Ittihad | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 20 |
| 6 | NEOM | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Ittihad vs NEOM
- 8 April 2026Al-Ittihad 3–4 NEOMPro League
- 31 December 2025NEOM 1–3 Al-IttihadPro League
Leading scorers: Al-Ittihad and NEOM
Al-Ittihad
GoalsAssists
- Y. En-Nesyri70
- G. Ilenikhena53
- S. Bergwijn51
NEOM
GoalsAssists
- A. Lacazette51
- A. Koné41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Al-Ittihad carry a model rating of 6.71 against 6.64 for NEOM. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.61 goals for Al-Ittihad and 1.22 for NEOM. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Ittihad rate 0.91 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; NEOM rate 0.69 and 1.08.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al-Ittihad a 0.8% chance of the title and NEOM 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Ittihad the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Al-Ittihad against 1.22 for NEOM. Al-Ittihad's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.08 for NEOM.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al-Ittihad at home · NEOM away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al-Ittihad 9, NEOM 10.
Al-Ittihad score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); NEOM have let in 2 there.
NEOM score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Al-Ittihad have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Al-Ittihad
No further matches on our board yet.
NEOM
- vs Al Kholood20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 51%
- vs Al Taawon26 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 49%
- at Al Shabab3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.