Al-Ahli Jeddah
vs
Al-Faisaly FC
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2–1 Al-Faisaly FC
The model makes it 67% Al-Ahli Jeddah, 18% draw, 15% Al-Faisaly FC — fair odds of 1.49, 5.56 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.91, Al-Faisaly FC 1.19.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Al-Ahli Jeddah are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. Al-Ahli Jeddah's rating is built from 45 Saudi Pro League matches and Al-Faisaly FC's from 12, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 716 matches.
Key facts
- Al-Ahli Jeddah are 6th on 21 points from 11 games; Al-Faisaly FC are 15th on 10 points from 12 games — Pro League.
- Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-6 defeat away to Al Shabab.
- Al-Faisaly FC have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Al-Fayha.
- Last 6 meetings: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 15 April 2023, ended Al-Ahli Jeddah 2–2 Al-Faisaly FC.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC
Has the model earned this number?
Al-Ahli Jeddah at 67%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Pro League
- L1-6away to Al Shabab30 October 2026
- W4-1Al Khaleej Saihat23 October 2026
- W3-2away to Al-Fayha19 October 2026
- W4-0away to Al-Fateh9 October 2026
- W3-1Al-Hazm11 September 2026
Al-Faisaly FC
Pro League
- L1-4away to Al-Fayha31 October 2026
- W1-0away to Abha27 October 2026
- L1-3Al-Nassr23 October 2026
- D2-2away to Al Shabab19 October 2026
- W3-2Al Kholood15 October 2026
What these results say
- Al-Ahli Jeddah scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Al-Ahli Jeddah had three goals or more.
- Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Faisaly FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Faisaly FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al-Faisaly FC had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Saudi Arabia Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 19 | +9 | 21 |
| 15 | Al-Faisaly FC | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Chance to finish in the top four · 48% today
Al-Faisaly FC
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 28% today
From our Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC
- 15 April 2023Al-Ahli Jeddah 2–2 Al-Faisaly FCDivision 1
- 14 January 2023Al-Faisaly FC 1–2 Al-Ahli JeddahDivision 1
- 11 January 2022Al-Faisaly FC 2–2 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
- 21 December 2021Al-Ahli Jeddah 2–1 Al-Faisaly FCKing's Cup
- 13 August 2021Al-Ahli Jeddah 1–1 Al-Faisaly FCPro League
- 27 February 2021Al-Faisaly FC 2–1 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
Leading scorers: Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Faisaly FC
Al-Ahli Jeddah
GoalsAssists
- I. Toney132
- Trincão63
Al-Faisaly FC
GoalsAssists
- Alexandre Mendy51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 0.6% chance of the title and Al-Faisaly FC 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.91 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah against 1.19 for Al-Faisaly FC. Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack/defence rating is 1.11/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.59 for Al-Faisaly FC.
How the model reaches 67% for Al-Ahli Jeddah to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Al-Ahli Jeddah to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Al-Ahli Jeddah's ratings add 14 points and Al-Faisaly FC's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 67%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage40%+3
- Both sides at this match's level41%+1
- Al-Ahli Jeddah's ratings55%+14
- Al-Faisaly FC's ratings67%+12
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Al-Ahli Jeddah at home · Al-Faisaly FC away
League matches only, Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al-Ahli Jeddah 11, Al-Faisaly FC 12.
Al-Ahli Jeddah score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Al-Faisaly FC have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Al-Ahli Jeddah
- at Al Shamal23 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 52%
- at Al-Ittihad26 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 39%
- vs Al-Ettifaq3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 55%
- vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai8 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 56%
Al-Faisaly FC
- vs Al Khaleej Saihat26 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 36%
- at Al Taawon3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 33%
- vs Al Riyadh10 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 44%
- vs Al-Hilal14 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 11%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.