Al-Hilal
vs
Al Diriyah
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al-Hilal 2–0 Al Diriyah
The model makes it 67% Al-Hilal, 21% draw, 12% Al Diriyah — fair odds of 1.49, 4.76 and 8.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Al-Hilal 2.20, Al Diriyah 0.63.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Al-Hilal are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Al-Hilal are top on 30 points from 11 games; Al Diriyah are 8th on 15 points from 12 games — Pro League.
- Al-Hilal are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Al-Fateh.
- Al Diriyah have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to NEOM.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Hilal vs Al Diriyah
Has the model earned this number?
Al-Hilal at 67%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al-Hilal vs Al Diriyah
Al-Hilal
Pro League
- W2-0Al-Fateh31 October 2026
- W3-2away to Al-Qadisiyah FC23 October 2026
- W1-0Al-Hazm19 October 2026
- W3-2Al-Ittihad10 October 2026
- W6-0away to Al Taawon12 September 2026
Al Diriyah
Pro League
- L1-2NEOM30 October 2026
- L0-2away to Al-Ittihad23 October 2026
- W1-0Al Riyadh20 October 2026
- D1-1Al Taawon17 October 2026
- L0-3away to Al-Nassr9 October 2026
What these results say
- Al-Hilal won every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Hilal scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al Diriyah failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al Diriyah conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Saudi Arabia Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Hilal | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 9 | +23 | 30 |
| 8 | Al Diriyah | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Al-Hilal
Chance to win the league
Al Diriyah
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 5% today
From our Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Leading scorers: Al-Hilal and Al Diriyah
Al-Hilal
GoalsAssists
- Gabriel Martinelli60
- O. Watkins55
- Rúben Neves53
Al Diriyah
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al-Hilal a 69.4% chance of the title and Al Diriyah 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Hilal the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Al-Hilal against 0.63 for Al Diriyah. Al-Hilal's attack/defence rating is 1.2/0.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.11 for Al Diriyah.
How the model reaches 67% for Al-Hilal to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Al-Hilal to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Al-Hilal's ratings add 16 points and Al Diriyah's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 67%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage40%+3
- Both sides at this match's level38%−2
- Al-Hilal's ratings54%+16
- Al Diriyah's ratings67%+13
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Al-Hilal at home · Al Diriyah away
League matches only, Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al-Hilal 11, Al Diriyah 12.
Al-Hilal score most often in the 16–30 minute window (8 goals); Al Diriyah have let in 3 there.
Al Diriyah score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Al-Hilal have let in 0 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Al-Hilal
- at Neftchi Fergana23 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 81%
- at Al Kholood26 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 74%
- vs Abha3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 76%
- vs Al Ain7 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 64%
Al Diriyah
- vs Al-Fayha26 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 37%
- at Al Khaleej Saihat3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 33%
- vs Al Shabab10 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 32%
- at Al-Ahli Jeddah14 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 19%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.