Al-Faisaly FC
vs
Al Diriyah
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al-Faisaly FC 0–1 Al Diriyah
The model makes it 32% Al-Faisaly FC, 30% draw, 38% Al Diriyah — fair odds of 3.13, 3.33 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Al-Faisaly FC 1.11, Al Diriyah 1.26.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 934 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 22 October 2026. Al-Faisaly FC's rating is built from 9 Saudi Pro League matches and Al Diriyah's from 10, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 697 matches.
Key facts
- Al-Faisaly FC are 14th on 7 points from 9 games; Al Diriyah are 7th on 15 points from 10 games — Pro League.
- Al-Faisaly FC have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Al Shabab.
- Al Diriyah have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Al Riyadh.
- Last 2 meetings: both drawn; the most recent, 7 March 2026, ended Al-Faisaly FC 2–2 Al Diriyah.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Diriyah
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Diriyah at 38% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 3,406 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Diriyah
Al-Faisaly FC
- D2-2away to Al Shabab19 October 2026
- W3-2Al Kholood15 October 2026
- L1-3Al-Ittihad11 September 2026
- D0-0away to Al-Ettifaq8 September 2026
- D0-0Al-Hazm5 September 2026
Al Diriyah
- W1-0Al Riyadh20 October 2026
- D1-1Al Taawon17 October 2026
- L0-3away to Al-Nassr9 October 2026
- D0-0Abha13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Al-Fateh9 September 2026
What these results say
- Al-Faisaly FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Al-Faisaly FC | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 7 |
| 7 | Al Diriyah | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Diriyah
- 7 March 2026Al-Faisaly FC 2–2 Al DiriyahDivision 1
- 23 November 2025Al Diriyah 1–1 Al-Faisaly FCDivision 1
Leading scorers: Al-Faisaly FC and Al Diriyah
Al-Faisaly FC
GoalsAssists
- Alexandre Mendy51
Al Diriyah
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Al-Faisaly FC carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.6 for Al Diriyah. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.11 goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 1.26 for Al Diriyah. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Faisaly FC rate 0.67 in attack and 1.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al Diriyah rate 0.56 and 1.01.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Diriyah the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC against 1.26 for Al Diriyah. Al-Faisaly FC's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.01 for Al Diriyah.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al-Faisaly FC at home · Al Diriyah away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al-Faisaly FC 9, Al Diriyah 10.
Al Diriyah score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Al-Faisaly FC have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Al-Faisaly FC
- at Al-Ahli Jeddah20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 14%
- vs Al Khaleej Saihat26 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 40%
Al Diriyah
- at Al-Hilal20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 14%
- vs Al-Fayha26 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 43%
- at Al Khaleej Saihat3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.