Al-Ettifaq
vs
Al-Hilal
Pro League postponed match
This fixture has been postponed and is not being played on this date. A replayed tie is listed by our data provider as a new fixture, with its own page, so the call below has no result to be judged against.
Before the match was called off the model made it 15% Al-Ettifaq, 20% draw, 65% Al-Hilal — fair odds of 6.67, 5.00 and 1.54. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Al-Ettifaq 1.06, Al-Hilal 2.61.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Al-Hilal are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Model insights: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Hilal at 65% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 349 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 64.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.7%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal
Al-Ettifaq
- L1-4Al-Ittihad20 October 2026
- W1-0away to NEOM17 October 2026
- D1-1Al Khaleej Saihat10 October 2026
- D3-3away to Al-Qadisiyah FC11 September 2026
- D0-0Al-Faisaly FC8 September 2026
Al-Hilal
- W1-0Al-Hazm19 October 2026
- W3-2Al-Ittihad10 October 2026
- W6-0away to Al Taawon12 September 2026
- L0-2NEOM7 September 2026
- W2-0away to Al Shabab4 September 2026
What these results say
- Al-Ettifaq failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Ettifaq scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Hilal won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Hilal scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Al-Ettifaq | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 15 |
| 2 | Al-Hilal | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 7 | +20 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal
- 13 February 2026Al-Hilal 2–0 Al-EttifaqPro League
- 18 October 2025Al-Ettifaq 0–5 Al-HilalPro League
- 11 April 2025Al-Ettifaq 1–1 Al-HilalPro League
- 8 November 2024Al-Hilal 3–1 Al-EttifaqPro League
- 26 February 2024Al-Ettifaq 0–2 Al-HilalPro League
- 28 August 2023Al-Hilal 2–0 Al-EttifaqPro League
Leading scorers: Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal
Al-Ettifaq
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Al-Hilal
GoalsAssists
- Gabriel Martinelli50
- O. Watkins44
- S. Milinković-Savić41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Al-Ettifaq carry a model rating of 6.53 against 7.04 for Al-Hilal. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.06 goals for Al-Ettifaq and 2.61 for Al-Hilal. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Ettifaq rate 0.76 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Hilal rate 1.24 and 0.85.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al-Ettifaq a 0% chance of the title and Al-Hilal 56.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Hilal the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq against 2.61 for Al-Hilal. Al-Ettifaq's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.24/0.85 for Al-Hilal.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.