Al-Ahli Jeddah
vs
Al Taawon
Pro League postponed match
This fixture has been postponed and is not being played on this date. A replayed tie is listed by our data provider as a new fixture, with its own page, so the call below has no result to be judged against.
Before the match was called off the model made it 67% Al-Ahli Jeddah, 20% draw, 13% Al Taawon — fair odds of 1.49, 5.00 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.55, Al Taawon 0.89.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Al-Ahli Jeddah are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Model insights: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Ahli Jeddah at 67% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 349 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 64.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.7%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon
Al-Ahli Jeddah
- W3-2away to Al-Fayha19 October 2026
- W4-0away to Al-Fateh9 October 2026
- W3-1Al-Hazm11 September 2026
- L2-3away to Al-Qadisiyah FC8 September 2026
- W5-0Al Riyadh4 September 2026
Al Taawon
- L0-1Al-Qadisiyah FC20 October 2026
- D1-1away to Al Diriyah17 October 2026
- L0-3away to Al Shabab11 October 2026
- L0-6Al-Hilal12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Al-Hazm8 September 2026
What these results say
- Al-Ahli Jeddah scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Al-Ahli Jeddah had three goals or more.
- Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al Taawon did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Al Taawon conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al Taawon failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 18 |
| 17 | Al Taawon | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon
- 11 May 2026Al Taawon 1–2 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
- 14 January 2026Al-Ahli Jeddah 2–1 Al TaawonPro League
- 7 May 2025Al-Ahli Jeddah 2–0 Al TaawonPro League
- 7 December 2024Al Taawon 2–4 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
- 9 March 2024Al Taawon 0–1 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
- 16 September 2023Al-Ahli Jeddah 3–2 Al TaawonPro League
Leading scorers: Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon
Al-Ahli Jeddah
GoalsAssists
- I. Toney111
- Trincão52
Al Taawon
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Al-Ahli Jeddah carry a model rating of 6.89 against 6.42 for Al Taawon. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.55 goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0.89 for Al Taawon. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Ahli Jeddah rate 1.14 in attack and 1.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al Taawon rate 0.57 and 1.37.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 5.6% chance of the title and Al Taawon 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.55 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah against 0.89 for Al Taawon. Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack/defence rating is 1.14/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.37 for Al Taawon.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.