Abha
vs
Al Shabab
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Abha 1–2 Al Shabab
The model makes it 34% Abha, 27% draw, 39% Al Shabab — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Abha 1.37, Al Shabab 1.50.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 934 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 22 October 2026. Abha's rating is built from 8 Saudi Pro League matches and Al Shabab's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 697 matches.
Key facts
- Abha are bottom on 2 points from 8 games; Al Shabab are 13th on 8 points from 9 games — Pro League.
- Abha have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Al-Qadisiyah FC.
- Al Shabab are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Al-Faisaly FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Al Shabab 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 22 September 2025, ended Abha 1–1 Al Shabab.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Abha vs Al Shabab
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Shabab at 39% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 3,406 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Abha vs Al Shabab
Abha
- L1-2away to Al-Qadisiyah FC16 October 2026
- D0-0away to Al Diriyah13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Al-Nassr9 September 2026
- L0-1Al-Ettifaq4 September 2026
- L2-3away to Al-Fayha28 August 2026
Al Shabab
- D2-2Al-Faisaly FC19 October 2026
- W3-0Al Taawon11 October 2026
- D0-0Al-Fayha12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Al Kholood9 September 2026
- L0-2Al-Hilal4 September 2026
What these results say
- Abha did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Abha conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al Shabab failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Abha | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 2 |
| 13 | Al Shabab | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Abha vs Al Shabab
- 22 September 2025Abha 1–1 Al ShababKing's Cup
- 18 April 2024Al Shabab 5–0 AbhaPro League
- 28 October 2023Abha 2–1 Al ShababPro League
- 14 February 2023Al Shabab 2–0 AbhaPro League
- 1 September 2022Abha 0–4 Al ShababPro League
- 8 January 2022Al Shabab 1–1 AbhaPro League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Abha carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.48 for Al Shabab. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for Abha and 1.50 for Al Shabab. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Abha rate 0.57 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al Shabab rate 0.70 and 1.47.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Shabab the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Abha against 1.50 for Al Shabab. Abha's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.47 for Al Shabab.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Abha at home · Al Shabab away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Abha 8, Al Shabab 9.
Abha score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Al Shabab have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Abha
- at Al Taawon20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 32%
Al Shabab
- vs Al-Ettifaq20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 37%
- at Al-Nassr26 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 13%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.