Valenciennes
vs
Orleans
Ligue 3 prediction
Our model says: Valenciennes 2–1 Orleans
The model makes it 42% Valenciennes, 27% draw, 31% Orleans — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Valenciennes 1.56, Orleans 1.28.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,036 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 22 October 2026. Valenciennes's rating is built from 41 Ligue 3 matches and Orleans's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Valenciennes are 14th on 9 points from 10 games; Orleans are 15th on 9 points from 10 games — Ligue 3.
- Valenciennes have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Amiens.
- Orleans have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Quevilly.
- Last 5 meetings: Orleans 3 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 31 January 2026, ended Valenciennes 0–1 Orleans.
More Ligue 3 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Valenciennes vs Orleans
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Valenciennes at 42% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 2,039 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Valenciennes vs Orleans
Valenciennes
- D1-1Amiens17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Versailles3 October 2026
- W2-1Le Puy Foot26 September 2026
- L2-3away to La Roche VF19 September 2026
- L1-2Fleury 9112 September 2026
Orleans
- L2-3away to Quevilly17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Bastia1 October 2026
- D0-0Cannes26 September 2026
- L0-2away to Amiens19 September 2026
- L0-4Versailles12 September 2026
What these results say
- Valenciennes conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Valenciennes failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Valenciennes scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Orleans did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Orleans conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Valenciennes | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Orleans | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Valenciennes vs Orleans
- 31 January 2026Valenciennes 0–1 OrleansLigue 3
- 22 August 2025Orleans 2–1 ValenciennesLigue 3
- 24 January 2025Valenciennes 1–0 OrleansLigue 3
- 9 October 2024Orleans 4–1 ValenciennesLigue 3
- 22 November 2019Orleans 0–1 ValenciennesLigue 2
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Valenciennes carry a model rating of 6.07 against 6.11 for Orleans. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for Valenciennes and 1.28 for Orleans. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Valenciennes rate 0.46 in attack and 2.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Orleans rate 0.48 and 2.09.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Valenciennes a 0.2% chance of the title and Orleans 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Valenciennes the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Valenciennes against 1.28 for Orleans. Valenciennes's attack/defence rating is 0.46/2.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/2.09 for Orleans.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Valenciennes at home · Orleans away
League matches only, Ligue 3, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 3 matches this season: Valenciennes 10, Orleans 10.
Valenciennes score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Orleans have let in 5 there.
Orleans score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Valenciennes have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Valenciennes
- at Quevilly21 Nov · Ligue 3win 26%
- vs Villefranche5 Dec · Ligue 3win 53%
- at Bastia12 Dec · Ligue 3win 18%
- at Thionville Lusitanos16 Jan · Ligue 3win 27%
Orleans
- vs Thionville Lusitanos21 Nov · Ligue 3win 46%
- at Aubagne5 Dec · Ligue 3win 35%
- vs Caen10 Dec · Ligue 3win 39%
- at Bourg-en-bresse 0116 Jan · Ligue 3win 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.