Al-Gharafa
vs
Al-Arabi SC
Stars League prediction
Our model says: Al-Gharafa 1–2 Al-Arabi SC
The model makes it 27% Al-Gharafa, 27% draw, 46% Al-Arabi SC — fair odds of 3.70, 3.70 and 2.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Al-Gharafa 1.19, Al-Arabi SC 1.70.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,921 settled matches.
Edge to Al-Arabi SC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Al-Gharafa's rating is built from 31 Qatar Stars League matches and Al-Arabi SC's from 31, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 319 matches.
Key facts
- Al-Gharafa are 10th on 9 points from 9 games; Al-Arabi SC are 4th on 14 points from 9 games — Stars League.
- Al-Gharafa have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Al-Duhail SC.
- Al-Arabi SC are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Al Ahli Doha.
- Last 6 meetings: Al-Gharafa 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 15 January 2026, ended Al-Arabi SC 1–2 Al-Gharafa.
More Qatar Stars League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Gharafa vs Al-Arabi SC
Has the model earned this number?
Al-Arabi SC at 46%: of 2,926 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al-Gharafa vs Al-Arabi SC
Al-Gharafa
Stars League
- L1-2Al-Duhail SC7 November 2026
- W2-0Qatar SC30 October 2026
- D2-2Al Ahli Doha22 October 2026
- D0-0Al-Rayyan SC18 October 2026
- L2-3away to Al Wakrah8 October 2026
Al-Arabi SC
Stars League
- D2-2Al Ahli Doha6 November 2026
- D0-0Al-Rayyan SC31 October 2026
- L2-3away to Al Wakrah24 October 2026
- W6-0away to Al Shahaniya16 October 2026
- W3-2away to Al Sadd9 October 2026
What these results say
- Al-Gharafa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Gharafa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Arabi SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al-Arabi SC had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Al-Gharafa | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 9 |
| 4 | Al-Arabi SC | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Gharafa vs Al-Arabi SC
- 15 January 2026Al-Arabi SC 1–2 Al-GharafaStars League
- 22 August 2025Al-Gharafa 2–1 Al-Arabi SCStars League
- 4 April 2025Al-Arabi SC 1–3 Al-GharafaStars League
- 31 October 2024Al-Gharafa 3–1 Al-Arabi SCStars League
- 30 March 2024Al-Arabi SC 0–1 Al-GharafaStars League
- 3 November 2023Al-Gharafa 5–4 Al-Arabi SCStars League
Leading scorers: Al-Gharafa and Al-Arabi SC
Al-Gharafa
GoalsAssists
- Y. Brahimi51
Al-Arabi SC
GoalsAssists
- Pablo Sarabia60
- O. Tannane33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Arabi SC the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Al-Gharafa against 1.70 for Al-Arabi SC. Al-Gharafa's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.28 for Al-Arabi SC.
How the model reaches 46% for Al-Arabi SC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for Al-Arabi SC to win. Then home advantage takes away 1 point, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Al-Gharafa's ratings add 5 points and Al-Arabi SC's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage37%−1
- Both sides at this match's level36%−1
- Al-Gharafa's ratings41%+5
- Al-Arabi SC's ratings46%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Al-Gharafa at home · Al-Arabi SC away
League matches only, Stars League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Stars League matches this season: Al-Gharafa 9, Al-Arabi SC 9.
Al-Gharafa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Al-Arabi SC have let in 2 there.
Al-Arabi SC score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Al-Gharafa have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Al-Gharafa
- at Al-Sailiya3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 55%
- vs Al-Nassr8 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 17%
- at Al-Ittihad8 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 12%
- vs Tractor Sazi15 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 23%
Al-Arabi SC
- at Lusail City3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 43%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.