Al Sadd
vs
Lusail City
Stars League prediction
Our model says: Al Sadd 2–1 Lusail City
The model makes it 54% Al Sadd, 21% draw, 25% Lusail City — fair odds of 1.85, 4.76 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Al Sadd 2.57, Lusail City 1.60.
Both teams to score: 74%. Over 2.5 goals: 79%, under 2.5: 21%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,130 settled matches.
Edge to Al Sadd: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Al Sadd's rating is built from 31 Qatar Stars League matches and Lusail City's from 9, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 319 matches.
Key facts
- Al Sadd are 3rd on 18 points from 9 games; Lusail City are 5th on 12 points from 9 games — Stars League.
- Al Sadd have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-4 defeat at home to Al-Rayyan SC.
- Lusail City have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Qatar SC.
More Qatar Stars League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al Sadd vs Lusail City
Has the model earned this number?
Al Sadd at 54%: of 1,625 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.5% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al Sadd vs Lusail City
Al Sadd
Stars League
- L3-4Al-Rayyan SC8 November 2026
- W4-1Al Shamal30 October 2026
- W4-0away to Al Shahaniya22 October 2026
- L2-3Al-Duhail SC18 October 2026
- L2-3Al-Arabi SC9 October 2026
Lusail City
Stars League
- W3-2Qatar SC8 November 2026
- W2-1away to Al-Sailiya31 October 2026
- L1-3away to Al-Duhail SC24 October 2026
- D0-0Al Shamal17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Al Shahaniya10 October 2026
What these results say
- Al Sadd scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Al Sadd had three goals or more.
- Al Sadd conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lusail City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Al Sadd | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 34 | 18 | +16 | 18 |
| 5 | Lusail City | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Sadd vs Lusail City
- 3 March 2024Lusail City 1–2 Al SaddQFA Cup
Leading scorers: Al Sadd and Lusail City
Al Sadd
GoalsAssists
- Akram Afif86
- Roberto Firmino84
- Giovani33
Lusail City
GoalsAssists
- Rodrigo60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al Sadd a 5.5% chance of the title and Lusail City 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Sadd the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.57 expected goals for Al Sadd against 1.60 for Lusail City. Al Sadd's attack/defence rating is 1.05/1.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.37 for Lusail City.
How the model reaches 54% for Al Sadd to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for Al Sadd to win. Then home advantage changes nothing, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Al Sadd's ratings add 10 points and Lusail City's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 54%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage38%±0
- Both sides at this match's level39%+1
- Al Sadd's ratings49%+10
- Lusail City's ratings54%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Al Sadd at home · Lusail City away
League matches only, Stars League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Stars League matches this season: Al Sadd 9, Lusail City 9.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Al Sadd
- at Al Wakrah3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 59%
- vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya7 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 80%
- at Tractor Sazi8 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 20%
- vs Al-Ittihad15 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 42%
Lusail City
- vs Al-Arabi SC3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 30%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.