Ajax
vs
AZ Alkmaar
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Ajax 2–1 AZ Alkmaar
The model makes it 47% Ajax, 26% draw, 27% AZ Alkmaar — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Ajax 1.76, AZ Alkmaar 1.23.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Ajax are 5th on 15 points from 8 games; AZ Alkmaar are 2nd on 19 points from 8 games — Eredivisie.
- Ajax are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to NEC Nijmegen.
- AZ Alkmaar have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Feyenoord.
- Last 6 meetings: AZ Alkmaar 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 8 February 2026, ended AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Ajax.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ajax at 47% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar
Ajax
- D1-1NEC Nijmegen10 October 2026
- D2-2Excelsior19 September 2026
- W5-1Willem II15 September 2026
- W5-1away to Fortuna Sittard12 September 2026
- L1-3PSV Eindhoven5 September 2026
AZ Alkmaar
- L0-2away to Feyenoord10 October 2026
- W1-0Telstar20 September 2026
- D1-1Willem II11 September 2026
- W3-2away to Heerenveen6 September 2026
- W5-2GO Ahead Eagles29 August 2026
What these results say
- Ajax scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ajax conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Ajax.
- AZ Alkmaar scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- AZ Alkmaar conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 15 |
| 2 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar
- 8 February 2026AZ Alkmaar 1–1 AjaxEredivisie
- 14 January 2026AZ Alkmaar 6–0 AjaxKNVB Beker
- 18 October 2025Ajax 0–2 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 16 March 2025Ajax 2–2 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 14 January 2025AZ Alkmaar 2–0 AjaxKNVB Beker
- 8 December 2024AZ Alkmaar 2–1 AjaxEredivisie
Leading scorers: Ajax and AZ Alkmaar
Ajax
GoalsAssists
- T. Arokodare41
- J. Brandt40
AZ Alkmaar
GoalsAssists
- R. Daal40
- M. Meerdink32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Ajax carry a model rating of 6.99 against 6.92 for AZ Alkmaar. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.76 goals for Ajax and 1.23 for AZ Alkmaar. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ajax rate 1.09 in attack and 0.83 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AZ Alkmaar rate 1.01 and 0.88.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour AZ Alkmaar, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ajax a 8.3% chance of the title and AZ Alkmaar 11%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ajax the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Ajax against 1.23 for AZ Alkmaar. Ajax's attack/defence rating is 1.09/0.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.01/0.88 for AZ Alkmaar.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ajax at home · AZ Alkmaar away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: Ajax 8, AZ Alkmaar 8.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Ajax
- at FC Midtjylland5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 32%
- at Twente8 Nov · Eredivisiewin 33%
AZ Alkmaar
- vs Juventus5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 30%
- vs Groningen8 Nov · Eredivisiewin 51%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.