Annecy
vs
Montpellier
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Annecy 1–0 Montpellier
The model makes it 34% Annecy, 32% draw, 34% Montpellier — fair odds of 2.94, 3.13 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Annecy 0.99, Montpellier 1.00.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%, under 2.5: 68%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Annecy and Montpellier are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Annecy are 8th on 13 points from 9 games; Montpellier are 5th on 15 points from 8 games — Ligue 2.
- Annecy have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Nancy.
- Montpellier are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Grenoble.
- Last 2 meetings: Montpellier 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 10 April 2026, ended Annecy 0–0 Montpellier.
More Ligue 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Annecy vs Montpellier
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Annecy at 34% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Annecy vs Montpellier
Annecy
- L1-2Nancy16 October 2026
- W1-0away to Dunkerque9 October 2026
- L1-2Dijon18 September 2026
- L1-2away to Guingamp12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Grenoble4 September 2026
Montpellier
- W2-0Grenoble9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Reims18 September 2026
- W1-0PAU11 September 2026
- L1-3away to Saint Etienne5 September 2026
- D0-0Boulogne28 August 2026
What these results say
- Annecy scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Annecy conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Annecy had three goals or more.
- Montpellier scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Montpellier had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Annecy | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 13 |
| 5 | Montpellier | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Annecy
Chance to finish in the top four · 20% today
Montpellier
Chance to finish in the top four · 54% today
From our Ligue 2 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Annecy vs Montpellier
- 10 April 2026Annecy 0–0 MontpellierLigue 2
- 7 November 2025Montpellier 1–0 AnnecyLigue 2
Leading scorers: Annecy and Montpellier
Annecy
GoalsAssists
- M. Sahi30
Montpellier
No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Annecy carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.62 for Montpellier. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.99 goals for Annecy and 1.00 for Montpellier. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Annecy rate 0.67 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Montpellier rate 0.59 and 1.00.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Montpellier, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Annecy a 2.3% chance of the title and Montpellier 11.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Annecy the highest probability at 34%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Annecy against 1.00 for Montpellier. Annecy's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1 for Montpellier.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Annecy at home · Montpellier away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: Annecy 9, Montpellier 8.
Annecy score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Montpellier have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Annecy
- at Boulogne6 Nov · Ligue 2win 36%
- vs Clermont Foot20 Nov · Ligue 2win 46%
- vs Laval4 Dec · Ligue 2win 53%
- at Nantes11 Dec · Ligue 2win 25%
Montpellier
- vs Metz6 Nov · Ligue 2win 40%
- at Laval20 Nov · Ligue 2win 45%
- vs Nantes4 Dec · Ligue 2win 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.