Guingamp
vs
Saint Etienne
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Guingamp 0–1 Saint Etienne
The model makes it 27% Guingamp, 28% draw, 45% Saint Etienne — fair odds of 3.70, 3.57 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Guingamp 1.10, Saint Etienne 1.59.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Saint Etienne: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Guingamp are 13th on 8 points from 9 games; Saint Etienne are top on 19 points from 8 games — Ligue 2.
- Guingamp are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to PAU.
- Saint Etienne have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Rodez.
- Last 6 meetings: Guingamp 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 February 2026, ended Guingamp 1–2 Saint Etienne.
More Ligue 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Guingamp vs Saint Etienne
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Saint Etienne at 45% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Guingamp vs Saint Etienne
Guingamp
- L1-2PAU16 October 2026
- L0-1away to Nancy9 October 2026
- L1-3RED Star FC 9319 September 2026
- W2-1Annecy12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Reims5 September 2026
Saint Etienne
- W2-0Rodez10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Metz19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Dunkerque12 September 2026
- W3-1Montpellier5 September 2026
- W3-2away to Dijon31 August 2026
What these results say
- Guingamp conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Guingamp failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Guingamp scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Saint Etienne scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Saint Etienne conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Saint Etienne had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Guingamp | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 8 |
| 1 | Saint Etienne | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 8 | +13 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Guingamp
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 40% today
Saint Etienne
Chance to finish in the top four · 75% today
From our Ligue 2 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Guingamp vs Saint Etienne
- 14 February 2026Guingamp 1–2 Saint EtienneLigue 2
- 27 September 2025Saint Etienne 2–3 GuingampLigue 2
- 4 May 2024Guingamp 2–2 Saint EtienneLigue 2
- 5 December 2023Saint Etienne 1–3 GuingampLigue 2
- 6 May 2023Saint Etienne 3–2 GuingampLigue 2
- 17 September 2022Guingamp 2–1 Saint EtienneLigue 2
Leading scorers: Guingamp and Saint Etienne
Guingamp
GoalsAssists
- B. Bokangu40
Saint Etienne
GoalsAssists
- A. Boakye53
- T. Ballo52
- I. Cardona44
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Guingamp carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.6 for Saint Etienne. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.10 goals for Guingamp and 1.59 for Saint Etienne. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Guingamp rate 0.59 in attack and 1.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Saint Etienne rate 0.77 and 1.26.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Guingamp a 0% chance of the title and Saint Etienne 35%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Saint Etienne the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Guingamp against 1.59 for Saint Etienne. Guingamp's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.26 for Saint Etienne.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Guingamp at home · Saint Etienne away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: Guingamp 9, Saint Etienne 8.
Guingamp score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Saint Etienne have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Guingamp
- at Dunkerque6 Nov · Ligue 2win 27%
- vs Rodez20 Nov · Ligue 2win 36%
- at Grenoble4 Dec · Ligue 2win 32%
- vs Dijon11 Dec · Ligue 2win 35%
Saint Etienne
- vs Laval6 Nov · Ligue 2win 60%
- at Reims20 Nov · Ligue 2win 31%
- vs Nancy4 Dec · Ligue 2win 50%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.