Feyenoord
vs
Fortuna Sittard
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Feyenoord 2–0 Fortuna Sittard
The model makes it 71% Feyenoord, 17% draw, 12% Fortuna Sittard — fair odds of 1.41, 5.88 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (9%).
Expected goals: Feyenoord 2.92, Fortuna Sittard 0.95.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Feyenoord are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Feyenoord are top on 20 points from 8 games; Fortuna Sittard are 7th on 14 points from 8 games — Eredivisie.
- Feyenoord are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to AZ Alkmaar.
- Fortuna Sittard have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Twente.
- Last 6 meetings: Feyenoord 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 3 May 2026, ended Fortuna Sittard 1–2 Feyenoord.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Feyenoord at 71% here. Across 3,865 settled matches (as of 17 October 2026), 322 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard
Feyenoord
- W2-0AZ Alkmaar10 October 2026
- W5-0Utrecht20 September 2026
- W7-0away to PEC Zwolle13 September 2026
- W3-1away to NEC Nijmegen5 September 2026
- D2-2ADO Den Haag30 August 2026
Fortuna Sittard
- D1-1Twente10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Willem II19 September 2026
- L1-5Ajax12 September 2026
- W3-2away to ADO Den Haag6 September 2026
- W3-2away to Groningen28 August 2026
What these results say
- Feyenoord went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Feyenoord scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Feyenoord won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fortuna Sittard scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fortuna Sittard conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Fortuna Sittard.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 7 | +20 | 20 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Feyenoord
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 43% today
From our Eredivisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard
Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard have met 6 times in the records we hold, Feyenoord has won 4 of them to Fortuna Sittard's 0, with 2 drawn.
The record
Feyenoord won the last one 2–1 on 3 May 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 2 |
| Fortuna Sittard | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 10 goals, an average of 1.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 3 May 2026
EredivisieFortuna Sittard 1–2 Feyenoord - 17 Sep 2025
EredivisieFeyenoord 2–0 Fortuna Sittard - 12 Apr 2025
EredivisieFortuna Sittard 0–2 Feyenoord - 30 Nov 2024
EredivisieFeyenoord 1–1 Fortuna Sittard - 14 Apr 2024
EredivisieFortuna Sittard 0–1 Feyenoord - 13 Aug 2023
EredivisieFeyenoord 0–0 Fortuna Sittard
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord | 1.27 | 0.80 |
| Fortuna Sittard | 0.81 | 1.25 |
Leading scorers: Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard
Feyenoord
GoalsAssists
- G. Zechiël54
- Nacho Ferri51
- A. Hadj-Moussa51
Fortuna Sittard
GoalsAssists
- M. Ihattaren33
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Feyenoord carry a model rating of 7.08 against 6.63 for Fortuna Sittard. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.92 goals for Feyenoord and 0.95 for Fortuna Sittard. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Feyenoord rate 1.27 in attack and 0.80 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fortuna Sittard rate 0.81 and 1.25.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Feyenoord a 42.8% chance of the title and Fortuna Sittard 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,938 correct results out of 4,046 settled predictions (48%), with 405 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Feyenoord the highest probability at 71%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.92 expected goals for Feyenoord against 0.95 for Fortuna Sittard. Feyenoord's attack/defence rating is 1.27/0.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.25 for Fortuna Sittard.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Feyenoord at home · Fortuna Sittard away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
FeyenoordFortuna Sittard
Feyenoord are 1st after 8 Eredivisie matches (between 1st and 6th so far); Fortuna Sittard are 6th after 8 (between 2nd and 8th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: Feyenoord 8, Fortuna Sittard 8.
Feyenoord score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); Fortuna Sittard have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Feyenoord
- vs Inter3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 37%
- at Heerenveen8 Nov · Eredivisiewin 48%
Fortuna Sittard
- vs Telstar7 Nov · Eredivisiewin 45%
- at GO Ahead Eagles22 Nov · Eredivisiewin 27%
- vs Heerenveen29 Nov · Eredivisiewin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.