Tigre
vs
Sarmiento Junin
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Tigre 1–0 Sarmiento Junin
The model makes it 41% Tigre, 30% draw, 29% Sarmiento Junin — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Tigre 1.32, Sarmiento Junin 1.01.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Tigre's rating is built from 65 Liga Profesional Argentina matches and Sarmiento Junin's from 62, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,345 matches.
Key facts
- Tigre are 12th on 13 points from 14 games; Sarmiento Junin are 5th on 21 points from 14 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group B.
- Tigre have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Atletico Tucuman.
- Sarmiento Junin are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Gimnasia La Plata.
- Last 6 meetings: Sarmiento Junin 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Sarmiento Junin 1–0 Tigre.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tigre at 41% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin
Tigre
Liga Profesional Argentina
- L0-1Atletico Tucuman24 October 2026
- D2-2away to Independiente Rivadavia17 October 2026
- L1-2Banfield10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Argentinos Juniors4 October 2026
- L2-3away to Velez Sarsfield21 September 2026
Sarmiento Junin
Liga Profesional Argentina
- L0-2away to Gimnasia La Plata23 October 2026
- D1-1Barracas Central19 October 2026
- D1-1River Plate14 October 2026
- W3-1away to Aldosivi9 October 2026
- L1-3away to Racing Club19 September 2026
What these results say
- Tigre did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Tigre conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Tigre scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sarmiento Junin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sarmiento Junin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sarmiento Junin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Tigre | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 13 |
| 5 | Sarmiento Junin | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 21 | +1 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin
- 25 April 2026Sarmiento Junin 1–0 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
- 18 August 2024Sarmiento Junin 0–0 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
- 25 January 2024Tigre 0–0 Sarmiento JuninCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 20 August 2023Sarmiento Junin 2–0 TigreCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 14 April 2023Tigre 1–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 4 October 2022Sarmiento Junin 2–2 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Tigre and Sarmiento Junin
Tigre
GoalsAssists
- I. Russo83
- M. Méndez73
- D. Romero72
Sarmiento Junin
GoalsAssists
- J. Marabel145
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Tigre carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.59 for Sarmiento Junin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.32 goals for Tigre and 1.01 for Sarmiento Junin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tigre rate 0.71 in attack and 1.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sarmiento Junin rate 0.88 and 1.51.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tigre the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Tigre against 1.01 for Sarmiento Junin. Tigre's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.51 for Sarmiento Junin.
How the model reaches 41% for Tigre to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 34% for Tigre to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Tigre's ratings take away 13 points and Sarmiento Junin's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground34%
- Home advantage41%+7
- Tigre's ratings28%−13
- Sarmiento Junin's ratings41%+13
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Tigre at home · Sarmiento Junin away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Tigre 30, Sarmiento Junin 28.
Tigre score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Sarmiento Junin have let in 9 there.
Sarmiento Junin score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Tigre have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.