Deportivo Cali
vs
Chico
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Deportivo Cali 1–0 Chico
The model makes it 62% Deportivo Cali, 26% draw, 12% Chico — fair odds of 1.61, 3.85 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (18%).
Expected goals: Deportivo Cali 1.72, Chico 0.49.
Both teams to score: 32%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 58% of the time, over 1,389 settled matches.
One-sided: Deportivo Cali are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. Deportivo Cali's rating is built from 73 Colombian Primera A matches and Chico's from 72, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,221 matches.
Key facts
- Deportivo Cali are 3rd on 26 points from 14 games; Chico are 16th on 12 points from 13 games — Primera A.
- Deportivo Cali are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Junior.
- Chico are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Atletico Nacional.
- Last 6 meetings: Chico 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 April 2026, ended Chico 1–0 Deportivo Cali.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Deportivo Cali vs Chico
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportivo Cali at 62% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 1,048 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Deportivo Cali vs Chico
Deportivo Cali
- D0-0Junior19 October 2026
- D0-0away to Deportivo Pereira10 October 2026
- W3-1Alianza Valledupar3 October 2026
- W2-0Águilas Doradas28 September 2026
- W1-0away to Santa Fe23 September 2026
Chico
- L1-4Atletico Nacional17 October 2026
- L0-1Cucuta11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Deportes Tolima3 October 2026
- W3-0Deportivo Pasto25 September 2026
- L0-3away to Millonarios19 September 2026
What these results say
- Deportivo Cali went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Deportivo Cali kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Deportivo Cali had two goals or fewer.
- Chico failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 26 |
| 16 | Chico | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Deportivo Cali
Chance to finish in the top eight · 99% today
Chico
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 39% today
From our Primera A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Deportivo Cali vs Chico
- 17 April 2026Chico 1–0 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
- 25 August 2025Chico 0–0 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
- 14 June 2025Chico 1–0 Deportivo CaliCopa Colombia
- 10 March 2025Deportivo Cali 0–0 ChicoPrimera A
- 11 August 2024Chico 1–0 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
- 10 February 2024Deportivo Cali 4–0 ChicoPrimera A
Leading scorers: Deportivo Cali and Chico
Deportivo Cali
GoalsAssists
- S. Rodríguez103
Chico
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Deportivo Cali carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.2 for Chico. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.72 goals for Deportivo Cali and 0.49 for Chico. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Deportivo Cali rate 0.65 in attack and 0.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chico rate 0.49 and 1.82.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Deportivo Cali a 2.5% chance of the title and Chico 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportivo Cali the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Deportivo Cali against 0.49 for Chico. Deportivo Cali's attack/defence rating is 0.65/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.82 for Chico.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Deportivo Cali at home · Chico away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Deportivo Cali 32, Chico 32.
Deportivo Cali score most often in the 61–75 minute window (10 goals); Chico have let in 4 there.
Chico score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Deportivo Cali have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Deportivo Cali
- at America de Cali8 Nov · Primera Awin 25%
- vs Deportes Tolima12 Nov · Primera Awin 45%
Chico
- vs Internacional de Bogota8 Nov · Primera Awin 35%
- at Llaneros12 Nov · Primera Awin 19%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.