ADO Den Haag
vs
Heerenveen
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: ADO Den Haag 1–2 Heerenveen
The model makes it 31% ADO Den Haag, 26% draw, 43% Heerenveen — fair odds of 3.23, 3.85 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: ADO Den Haag 1.32, Heerenveen 1.66.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Heerenveen: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- ADO Den Haag are 17th on 3 points from 8 games; Heerenveen are 10th on 9 points from 8 games — Eredivisie.
- ADO Den Haag have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Telstar.
- Heerenveen have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to PSV Eindhoven.
- Last 6 meetings: Heerenveen 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 6 March 2021, ended Heerenveen 3–0 ADO Den Haag.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Heerenveen at 43% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen
ADO Den Haag
- D2-2away to Telstar11 October 2026
- D1-1Cambuur19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Twente12 September 2026
- L2-3Fortuna Sittard6 September 2026
- D2-2away to Feyenoord30 August 2026
Heerenveen
- L0-2away to PSV Eindhoven9 October 2026
- W4-0away to Sparta Rotterdam19 September 2026
- D0-0Telstar13 September 2026
- L2-3AZ Alkmaar6 September 2026
- D2-2away to Willem II30 August 2026
What these results say
- ADO Den Haag did not win any of these 5 matches.
- ADO Den Haag conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- ADO Den Haag scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Heerenveen failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 3 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
ADO Den Haag
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 52% today
From our Eredivisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen
- 6 March 2021Heerenveen 3–0 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
- 28 November 2020ADO Den Haag 1–1 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 22 February 2020Heerenveen 2–2 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
- 3 November 2019ADO Den Haag 1–1 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 9 March 2019ADO Den Haag 2–3 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 29 September 2018Heerenveen 1–1 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
The two sides
ADO Den Haag carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.72 for Heerenveen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.32 goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.66 for Heerenveen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
ADO Den Haag rate 0.69 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Heerenveen rate 0.79 and 1.04.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives ADO Den Haag a 0% chance of the title and Heerenveen 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Heerenveen the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for ADO Den Haag against 1.66 for Heerenveen. ADO Den Haag's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.04 for Heerenveen.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
ADO Den Haag at home · Heerenveen away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
ADO Den HaagHeerenveen
ADO Den Haag are 17th after 8 Eredivisie matches (between 15th and 18th so far); Heerenveen are 10th after 8 (between 8th and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: ADO Den Haag 8, Heerenveen 8.
ADO Den Haag score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Heerenveen have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
ADO Den Haag
- at PEC Zwolle1 Nov · Eredivisiewin 36%
- vs Sparta Rotterdam7 Nov · Eredivisiewin 41%
- at Ajax22 Nov · Eredivisiewin 10%
- vs Utrecht29 Nov · Eredivisiewin 34%
Heerenveen
- vs NEC Nijmegen31 Oct · Eredivisiewin 41%
- vs Feyenoord8 Nov · Eredivisiewin 24%
- at Groningen21 Nov · Eredivisiewin 27%
- at Fortuna Sittard29 Nov · Eredivisiewin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.