Dijon
vs
Rodez
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Dijon 2–1 Rodez
The model makes it 48% Dijon, 23% draw, 29% Rodez — fair odds of 2.08, 4.35 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Dijon 2.19, Rodez 1.57.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Dijon are 7th on 12 points from 8 games; Rodez are 15th on 7 points from 8 games — Ligue 2.
- Dijon are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 4-2 win at home to Metz.
- Rodez have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Saint Etienne.
- Last 4 meetings: Dijon 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 8 April 2023, ended Dijon 1–0 Rodez.
More Ligue 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dijon vs Rodez
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dijon at 48% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dijon vs Rodez
Dijon
- W4-2Metz12 October 2026
- W2-1away to Annecy18 September 2026
- W3-2Laval11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Boulogne4 September 2026
- L2-3Saint Etienne31 August 2026
Rodez
- L0-2away to Saint Etienne10 October 2026
- L3-4Nancy18 September 2026
- L0-1Grenoble11 September 2026
- L1-4away to Metz5 September 2026
- D2-2PAU28 August 2026
What these results say
- Dijon scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dijon conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Dijon.
- Rodez did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Rodez conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Dijon | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 12 |
| 15 | Rodez | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Dijon
Chance to finish in the top four · 30% today
Rodez
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 20% today
From our Ligue 2 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Dijon vs Rodez
- 8 April 2023Dijon 1–0 RodezLigue 2
- 30 December 2022Rodez 2–1 DijonLigue 2
- 15 January 2022Rodez 0–2 DijonLigue 2
- 7 August 2021Dijon 1–1 RodezLigue 2
Leading scorers: Dijon and Rodez
Dijon
GoalsAssists
- Júlio Tavares41
- Samy Olivier Chouchane30
Rodez
GoalsAssists
- I. Baldé50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dijon carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.45 for Rodez. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.19 goals for Dijon and 1.57 for Rodez. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dijon rate 0.85 in attack and 1.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rodez rate 0.76 and 1.74.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dijon a 4.1% chance of the title and Rodez 0.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dijon the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Dijon against 1.57 for Rodez. Dijon's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.74 for Rodez.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Dijon at home · Rodez away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
DijonRodez
Dijon are 7th after 8 Ligue 2 matches (between 3rd and 17th so far); Rodez are 15th after 8 (between 2nd and 15th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: Dijon 8, Rodez 8.
Dijon score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Rodez have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Dijon
- at Grenoble30 Oct · Ligue 2win 40%
- vs RED Star FC 936 Nov · Ligue 2win 44%
- at Nancy20 Nov · Ligue 2win 38%
- vs Sochaux4 Dec · Ligue 2win 46%
Rodez
- vs Dunkerque30 Oct · Ligue 2win 45%
- at Clermont Foot6 Nov · Ligue 2win 35%
- at Guingamp20 Nov · Ligue 2win 37%
- vs Reims4 Dec · Ligue 2win 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.