Aberdeen vs Heart of Midlothian Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Aberdeen 2-1 Heart of Midlothian.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% Aberdeen, 25% draw, 19% Heart of Midlothian — fair odds of 1.79, 4.00 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aberdeen at 56% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aberdeen vs Heart of Midlothian
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 27M. MullerG
- 28C. CaddenD
- 23L. MayoD
- 26D. HappeD
- 24N. Guinness-WalkerD
- 8B. LyonsM
- 32A. AremuM
- 20T. OlusanyaM
- 25C. RonanM
- 7T. YoganeM
- 15K. NisbetF
- 1D. MitovG
- 17S. ArmstrongM
- 11L. SmithF
- 21G. MolloyD
- 10A. BriedlM
- 16D. LobbanD
- 9A. MoulouaF
- 22J. MilneD
- 53A. FasanyaF
- 1B. ReusG
- 23J. AltenaD
- 6O. McEnteeD
- 17S. FindlayD
- 18H. MilneD
- 78L. MendyM
- 16B. SpittalM
- 29S. KerjotaM
- 7C. MillerM
- 10C. BragaF
- 77A. Ba-SyF
- 28Z. ClarkG
- 15J. McPakeF
- 22T. MagnussonM
- 11P. KaboreF
- 5J. McCartD
- 89A. KyziridisF
- 19S. GuendouzF
- 74R. MatoF
- 21J. WilsonF
Form going into Aberdeen vs Heart of Midlothian
Aberdeen
No earlier matches on record this season.
Heart of Midlothian
All competitions we cover
- L0-2Sturm Graz28 July 2026
- L0-4away to Sturm Graz21 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Aberdeen | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 11 |
| 3 | Heart of Midlothian | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 17 | +7 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aberdeen vs Heart of Midlothian
- 28 February 2026Heart of Midlothian 1–0 AberdeenPremiership
- 23 November 2025Aberdeen 1–0 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 4 August 2025Heart of Midlothian 2–0 AberdeenPremiership
- 19 April 2025Heart of Midlothian 1–2 AberdeenFA Cup
- 12 January 2025Aberdeen 0–0 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
Leading scorers: Aberdeen and Heart of Midlothian
Aberdeen
GoalsAssists
- K. Nisbet43
Heart of Midlothian
GoalsAssists
- Cláudio Braga52
- C. Miller51
- J. McPake35
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Aberdeen beat Heart of Midlothian 2–1. The model had made a win for Aberdeen its most likely outcome, at 56%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: O. McEntee 35' for Heart of Midlothian, L. Mayo 90' for Aberdeen, K. Nisbet (penalty) 90' for Aberdeen. Sent off: Stuart Findlay (Heart of Midlothian) 90+3'. On expected goals it finished 2.32–1.36.