Premiership · Regular Season - 1 · 1 August 2026, 16:30 UTC

Aberdeen vs Heart of Midlothian

Pittodrie Stadium, Aberdeen

The model makes it 56% Aberdeen, 25% draw, 19% Heart of Midlothian — fair odds of 1.79, 4.00 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Aberdeen 1.75, Heart of Midlothian 0.93.

Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

51%
Both teams to score
50%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%1-0 11%2-0 10%

Head-to-head: Aberdeen vs Heart of Midlothian

  • 28 February 2026Heart of Midlothian 1–0 AberdeenPremiership
  • 23 November 2025Aberdeen 1–0 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
  • 4 August 2025Heart of Midlothian 2–0 AberdeenPremiership
  • 19 April 2025Heart of Midlothian 1–2 AberdeenFA Cup
  • 12 January 2025Aberdeen 0–0 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
  • 1 December 2024Heart of Midlothian 1–1 AberdeenPremiership
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Aberdeen the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Aberdeen against 0.93 for Heart of Midlothian. Aberdeen's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.65 for Heart of Midlothian.