St Johnstone
vs
Kilmarnock
The model makes it 48% St Johnstone, 23% draw, 29% Kilmarnock — fair odds of 2.08, 4.35 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: St Johnstone 2.00, Kilmarnock 1.52.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: St Johnstone vs Kilmarnock
- 3 May 2025St Johnstone 0–2 KilmarnockPremiership
- 15 February 2025Kilmarnock 3–1 St JohnstonePremiership
- 23 November 2024St Johnstone 1–0 KilmarnockPremiership
- 11 August 2024Kilmarnock 0–3 St JohnstonePremiership
- 13 April 2024St Johnstone 0–2 KilmarnockPremiership
- 23 December 2023Kilmarnock 2–1 St JohnstonePremiership
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives St Johnstone the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2 expected goals for St Johnstone against 1.52 for Kilmarnock. St Johnstone's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.32 for Kilmarnock.