2 August 2026, 13:00 UTC

St Johnstone vs Kilmarnock Premiership prediction & result

McDiarmid Park, Perth
Full time4 – 3

Final score: St Johnstone 4-3 Kilmarnock.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% St Johnstone, 23% draw, 29% Kilmarnock — fair odds of 2.08, 4.35 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts St Johnstone at 48% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

St Johnstone96%Draw4%Kilmarnock0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽J. Fowlerassist: J. Gullan
16'
21'
Tyreece John-Jules
37'
⚽G. Kiltieassist: T. Lowery
Liam Smith
45+4'
45+2'
🔁T. John-Julesout: J. Brandon
⚽C. Diabateassist: J. Gullan
47'
49'
⚽J. Hugill
Cheick Diabate
52'
53'
⚽J. Holt (OG)
59'
🔁N. Clescencoout: R. Mathurin
59'
🔁A. Tshibolaout: B. Rice
🔁J. Holtout: L. Chalmers
61'
🔁R. Patonout: K. Fotheringham
61'
66'
🔁E. Ringout: M. O'Hara
🔁R. McAlearout: L. Lloyd
69'
⚽M. Schjonning-Larsen (OG)
69'
⚽K. Fotheringhamassist: J. Fowler
80'
82'
Jamie Brandon
🔁J. Fowlerout: M. Tait
84'
🔁J. Gullanout: J. Baird
85'
85'
🔁G. Kiltieout: I. Owen

Match stats — St Johnstone vs Kilmarnock

56%Possession44%
15Shots7
5On target5
6Corners3
1.76xG0.79

Goals against chances

St Johnstone4 from 1.76 xGmore than the chances were worth
Kilmarnock3 from 0.79 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

St Johnstone 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. StewardG
  • 33L. SmithD
  • 5Z. MitchellD
  • 3C. DiabateD
  • 14M. FouldsD
  • 42R. McAlearM
  • 8J. HoltM
  • 11S. StantonM
  • 10J. GullanM
  • 99R. PatonM
  • 9J. FowlerF
Substitutes
  • 20R. SinclairG
  • 23L. ChalmersM
  • 4M. BoyesD
  • 19D. FinlaysonD
  • 25M. TaitM
  • 7T. StevenF
  • 15J. BairdD
  • 17L. Lloyd
  • 18K. FotheringhamF
Coach: Simo Valakari
Kilmarnock 4-4-1-1
  • 1M. StryjekG
  • 8E. RingD
  • 25E. Schilte-BrownD
  • 14G. StangerD
  • 21M. Schjonning-LarsenD
  • 11G. KiltieM
  • 36A. TshibolaM
  • 18T. LoweryM
  • 20N. ClescencoM
  • 10T. John-JulesF
  • 9J. HugillF
Substitutes
  • 12C. FerrieG
  • 7R. McKenzieM
  • 27I. OwenF
  • 5M. O'Hara
  • 2J. BrandonD
  • 23R. MathurinF
  • 15J. YfekoD
  • 49B. RiceM
  • 39E. BowieD
Coach: Neil McCann

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7St Johnstone621389-17
12Kilmarnock5014414-101

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: St Johnstone vs Kilmarnock

  • 2 August 2026St Johnstone 4–3 KilmarnockPremiership
  • 3 May 2025St Johnstone 0–2 KilmarnockPremiership
  • 15 February 2025Kilmarnock 3–1 St JohnstonePremiership
  • 23 November 2024St Johnstone 1–0 KilmarnockPremiership
  • 11 August 2024Kilmarnock 0–3 St JohnstonePremiership
  • 13 April 2024St Johnstone 0–2 KilmarnockPremiership

Leading scorers: St Johnstone and Kilmarnock

St Johnstone

  • J. Fowler4 goals1 assists

Kilmarnock

No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.