St Johnstone vs Kilmarnock Premiership prediction & result
Final score: St Johnstone 4-3 Kilmarnock.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% St Johnstone, 23% draw, 29% Kilmarnock — fair odds of 2.08, 4.35 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts St Johnstone at 48% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — St Johnstone vs Kilmarnock
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1T. StewardG
- 33L. SmithD
- 5Z. MitchellD
- 3C. DiabateD
- 14M. FouldsD
- 42R. McAlearM
- 8J. HoltM
- 11S. StantonM
- 10J. GullanM
- 99R. PatonM
- 9J. FowlerF
- 20R. SinclairG
- 23L. ChalmersM
- 4M. BoyesD
- 19D. FinlaysonD
- 25M. TaitM
- 7T. StevenF
- 15J. BairdD
- 17L. Lloyd
- 18K. FotheringhamF
- 1M. StryjekG
- 8E. RingD
- 25E. Schilte-BrownD
- 14G. StangerD
- 21M. Schjonning-LarsenD
- 11G. KiltieM
- 36A. TshibolaM
- 18T. LoweryM
- 20N. ClescencoM
- 10T. John-JulesF
- 9J. HugillF
- 12C. FerrieG
- 7R. McKenzieM
- 27I. OwenF
- 5M. O'Hara
- 2J. BrandonD
- 23R. MathurinF
- 15J. YfekoD
- 49B. RiceM
- 39E. BowieD
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | St Johnstone | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 26 | -15 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: St Johnstone vs Kilmarnock
- 3 May 2025St Johnstone 0–2 KilmarnockPremiership
- 15 February 2025Kilmarnock 3–1 St JohnstonePremiership
- 23 November 2024St Johnstone 1–0 KilmarnockPremiership
- 11 August 2024Kilmarnock 0–3 St JohnstonePremiership
- 13 April 2024St Johnstone 0–2 KilmarnockPremiership
Leading scorers: St Johnstone and Kilmarnock
St Johnstone
GoalsAssists
- J. Fowler61
Kilmarnock
GoalsAssists
- G. Kiltie30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
St Johnstone beat Kilmarnock 4–3. The model had made a win for St Johnstone its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: J. Fowler 16' for St Johnstone, G. Kiltie 37' for Kilmarnock, C. Diabate 47' for St Johnstone, J. Hugill 49' for Kilmarnock, J. Holt (own goal) 53' for Kilmarnock, M. Schjonning-Larsen (own goal) 69' for St Johnstone, K. Fotheringham 80' for St Johnstone. On expected goals it finished 1.76–0.79.